Tue, Nov 9, 2021·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Edmonton Oilers 2, Detroit Red Wings 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 09 | 111 | 113 | 233 |
| DET | 116 | 213 | 110 | 439 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:03DETVladislav NamestnikovAssists: Sam Gagner · Slap, 0.35 xG0–1
- P2 6:43DETVladislav NamestnikovAssists: Michael Rasmussen, Filip Hronek · Wrist, 0.26 xG0–2
- P2 14:09DETDylan LarkinGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.36 xG0–3
- P2 19:25EDMJesse PuljujarviAssists: Slater Koekkoek · Snap, 0.17 xG1–3
- P3 0:38EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Darnell Nurse, Evan Bouchard · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–3
- P3 19:54DETMoritz SeiderENAssists: Michael Rasmussen, Nick Leddy · Wrist, 0.76 xG2–4
Penalties (4)
- P2 3:58EDMCody Ceci: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 8:43DETFilip Hronek: Interference2 min
- P2 14:56DETMichael Rasmussen: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:19EDMDarnell Nurse: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – McDavid – Puljujarvi7:43
xG 0.45–0.23 (66%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Sceviour – Perlini – McLeod2:37
xG 0.08–0.05 (63%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Sceviour – Foegele – Ryan4:15
xG 0.14–0.18 (44%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Perlini – Foegele – McLeod2:10
xG 0.04–0.16 (20%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNurse – Bouchard18:41
xG 1.53–1.27 (55%)attempts 27–13goals 1–1
- Keith – Barrie2:16
xG 0.09–0.13 (41%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Keith – Ceci16:28
xG 0.28–0.71 (28%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestFabbri – Suter – Zadina10:32
xG 1.17–0.32 (78%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Gagner – Namestnikov – Stephens4:26
xG 0.46–0.02 (96%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Gagner – Stephens – Smith2:35
xG 0.45–0.01 (97%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Erne – Smith – Rasmussen2:33
xG 0.25–0.05 (84%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLeddy – Hronek18:58
xG 1.95–0.57 (77%)attempts 20–15goals 1–1
- DeKeyser – Seider14:29
xG 1.66–0.55 (75%)attempts 17–9goals 2–1
- Staal – Lindstrom13:46
xG 0.82–0.39 (68%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).