Tue, Nov 9, 2021·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Carolina Hurricanes 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 1 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 012 | 010 | 18 | 11 | 231 |
| TBL | 03 | 18 | 06 | 01 | 118 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 9:00TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Mathieu Joseph, Alex Killorn · Snap, 0.07 xG0–1
- P3 9:56CARTeuvo TeravainenPPAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Andrei Svechnikov · Snap, 0.13 xG1–1
- OT 3:26CARMartin NecasGWGAssists: Sebastian Aho, Tony DeAngelo · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
Penalties (11)
- P1 8:53CARSebastian Aho: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:51TBLCorey Perry: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 13:04TBLJan Rutta: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:27CARBrendan Smith: Interference2 min
- P2 3:33TBLJan Rutta: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 3:59TBLPierre-Edouard Bellemare: Cross checking2 min
- P2 10:24CAREthan Bear: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:40CAREthan Bear: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:40TBLMathieu Joseph: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:10TBLSteven Stamkos: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P3 14:54CARVincent Trocheck: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bellemare won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestAho – Necas – Svechnikov5:04
xG 0.20–0.12 (61%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Staal – Fast – Lorentz7:25
xG 0.22–0.19 (54%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Stepan – Martinook – Jarvis3:16
xG 0.03–0.03 (53%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Trocheck – Teravainen – Jarvis4:17
xG 0.07–0.13 (37%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSlavin – Bear14:21
xG 0.76–0.38 (67%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Cole – Smith10:50
xG 0.13–0.08 (61%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Skjei – DeAngelo12:25
xG 0.40–0.77 (34%)attempts 15–9goals 0–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestPalat – Point – Cirelli8:44
xG 0.62–0.27 (70%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Killorn – Stamkos – Joseph8:10
xG 0.18–0.11 (63%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
- Perry – Maroon – Bellemare10:14
xG 0.17–0.40 (29%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
- Raddysh – Colton – Barré-Boulet6:00
xG 0.02–0.27 (6%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Rutta5:07
xG 0.71–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 0–0
- Hedman – Foote6:20
xG 0.22–0.06 (78%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- McDonagh – Claesson2:21
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).