Tue, Nov 9, 2021·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
San Jose Sharks 4, Calgary Flames 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 04 | 18 | 314 | 426 |
| CGY | 08 | 119 | 011 | 138 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:47SJSAlexander BarabanovAssists: Brent Burns, Adin Hill · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 1:17CGYAndrew MangiapaneAssists: Milan Lucic, Dillon Dube · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–1
- P3 4:18SJSLogan CoutureGWGAssists: Santeri Hatakka, Nicolas Meloche · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
- P3 18:57SJSTomas HertlENAssists: Brent Burns, Adin Hill · Wrist, 0.79 xG3–1
- P3 19:19SJSJonathan DahlenENUnassisted · Snap, 0.56 xG4–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 1:43CGYErik Gudbranson: Holding2 min
- P1 18:35CGYChris Tanev: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:17SJSNick Merkley: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P2 5:30SJSAndrew Cogliano: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:47SJSJaycob Megna: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hertl won the faceoff against Lindholm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- Bonino – Couture – Dahlen7:51
xG 0.37–0.34 (52%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Cogliano – Merkley – Weatherby7:15
xG 0.28–0.29 (49%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Pederson – Gadjovich – Leonard7:11
xG 0.29–0.32 (48%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Hertl – Balcers – Barabanov11:20
xG 0.65–1.08 (38%)attempts 13–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMegna – Merkley8:12
xG 0.63–0.19 (77%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Megna – Meloche3:27
xG 0.16–0.03 (82%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Merkley – Hatakka2:06
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestLucic – Mangiapane – Dube8:47
xG 0.92–0.45 (67%)attempts 8–10goals 1–2
- Gaudreau – Lindholm – Tkachuk14:29
xG 0.95–0.60 (61%)attempts 21–16goals 0–0
- Backlund – Pitlick – Coleman7:52
xG 0.30–0.03 (91%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Richardson – Lewis – Monahan8:54
xG 0.27–0.56 (33%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudbranson – Zadorov13:52
xG 0.61–0.12 (84%)attempts 16–6goals 0–1
- Hanifin – Andersson16:17
xG 1.23–0.95 (56%)attempts 18–20goals 1–1
- Tanev – Kylington15:44
xG 0.78–0.67 (54%)attempts 16–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).