Wed, Nov 10, 2021·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Philadelphia Flyers 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 012 | 17 | 214 | 333 |
| PHI | 011 | 012 | 013 | 036 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 11:11TORWilliam NylanderGWGAssists: Jake Muzzin, Auston Matthews · Wrist, 0.74 xG1–0
- P3 5:09TORWilliam NylanderPPAssists: Nick Ritchie, Auston Matthews · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–0
- P3 13:33TOROndrej KaseAssists: Alexander Kerfoot, David Kampf · Snap, 0.11 xG3–0
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:02PHIScott Laughton: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:17TORJason Spezza: Holding2 min
- P1 17:30TORDavid Kampf: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:08TORNick Ritchie: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:25PHIIvan Provorov: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 9:10TOROndrej Kase: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:26PHIClaude Giroux: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kampf won the faceoff against Brassard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestNylander – Bunting – Matthews11:00
xG 1.16–0.25 (82%)attempts 9–15goals 1–0
- Kerfoot – Ritchie – Marner6:43
xG 0.50–0.21 (70%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Spezza – Kerfoot – Marner2:22
xG 0.06–0.03 (70%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Spezza – Simmonds – Semyonov7:09
xG 0.05–0.19 (21%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Holl15:02
xG 1.21–0.75 (62%)attempts 12–23goals 2–0
- Brodie – Rielly14:55
xG 0.65–0.31 (68%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Liljegren – Sandin13:47
xG 0.75–0.58 (57%)attempts 13–19goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestBrassard – Atkinson – Farabee9:48
xG 0.59–0.16 (78%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Giroux – Couturier – Konecny11:20
xG 0.33–0.28 (54%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Laughton – Lindblom10:28
xG 0.30–0.67 (31%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Thompson – Brown – MacEwen6:58
xG 0.16–0.61 (21%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRistolainen – Sanheim14:59
xG 0.60–0.41 (59%)attempts 21–7goals 0–0
- Braun – Provorov12:26
xG 0.36–0.35 (50%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
- Yandle – Seeler10:22
xG 0.39–0.64 (38%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).