Thu, Nov 11, 2021·TD Garden, Boston
Edmonton Oilers 5, Boston Bruins 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 19 | 17 | 312 | 528 |
| BOS | 17 | 211 | 011 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:45BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Patrice Bergeron · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 5:29EDMEvan BouchardAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 5:06BOSBrad MarchandAssists: David Pastrnak, Matt Grzelcyk · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–2
- P2 5:30EDMZach HymanAssists: Connor McDavid · Backhand, 0.20 xG2–2
- P2 17:14BOSBrandon CarloAssists: Matt Grzelcyk, Patrice Bergeron · Slap, 0.02 xG2–3
- P3 6:22EDMLeon DraisaitlUnassisted · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–3
- P3 9:26EDMLeon DraisaitlGWGAssists: Cody Ceci, Duncan Keith · Tip-in, 0.10 xG4–3
- P3 17:41EDMCody CeciUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG5–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 1:02EDMLeon Draisaitl: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:50BOSConnor Clifton: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 17:30EDMSlater Koekkoek: Holding2 min
- P2 8:42EDMSlater Koekkoek: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:28BOSBrad Marchand: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nosek won the faceoff against Draisaitl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestSceviour – Foegele – McLeod2:40
xG 0.28–0.04 (88%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – Draisaitl – Yamamoto13:37
xG 0.51–0.29 (64%)attempts 11–12goals 3–1
- Hyman – McDavid – Puljujarvi11:42
xG 0.61–0.61 (50%)attempts 7–10goals 1–1
- Turris – Foegele – Ryan4:43
xG 0.17–0.19 (48%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Ceci18:17
xG 0.77–0.43 (64%)attempts 13–16goals 3–2
- Nurse – Bouchard18:35
xG 1.15–0.85 (57%)attempts 17–17goals 2–1
- Barrie – Koekkoek9:06
xG 0.10–0.22 (32%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak11:03
xG 0.73–0.28 (72%)attempts 15–4goals 3–1
- Foligno – Coyle – Hall9:25
xG 0.33–0.12 (73%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Blidh – Lazar – Nosek10:57
xG 0.14–0.15 (48%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Smith – Haula – DeBrusk6:24
xG 0.16–0.92 (15%)attempts 3–12goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestForbort – McAvoy12:54
xG 0.58–0.40 (59%)attempts 11–7goals 1–1
- Reilly – Clifton11:14
xG 0.28–0.17 (62%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Grzelcyk – McAvoy2:40
xG 0.19–0.14 (57%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).