Thu, Nov 11, 2021·Centre Bell, Montreal
Calgary Flames 2, Montréal Canadiens 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 210 | 010 | 06 | 226 |
| MTL | 110 | 110 | 28 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:02CGYMikael BacklundAssists: Trevor Lewis, Oliver Kylington · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 9:26MTLBen ChiarotAssists: Tyler Toffoli, Nick Suzuki · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P1 16:22CGYAndrew MangiapaneAssists: Sean Monahan, Blake Coleman · Backhand, 0.17 xG2–1
- P2 11:24MTLBrendan GallagherPPAssists: Chris Wideman, Mike Hoffman · Wrist, 0.27 xG2–2
- P3 12:08MTLNick SuzukiPPGWGAssists: Mike Hoffman · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–3
- P3 19:53MTLJake EvansENAssists: Brendan Gallagher, Tyler Toffoli · Wrist, 0.77 xG2–4
Penalties (9)
- P2 0:42CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 10:23CGYBlake Coleman: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 11:24MTLTyler Toffoli: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:24CGYErik Gudbranson: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:47MTLMichael Pezzetta: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:06CGYRasmus Andersson: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 8:36CGYErik Gudbranson: High sticking2 min
- P3 9:42MTLBrendan Gallagher: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:27CGYAndrew Mangiapane: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Suzuki won the faceoff against Monahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestColeman – Monahan – Mangiapane10:18
xG 0.39–0.06 (86%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Lewis – Backlund – Dube8:40
xG 0.37–0.21 (64%)attempts 11–3goals 1–0
- Richardson – Lucic – Pitlick8:15
xG 0.23–0.39 (37%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
- Gaudreau – Lindholm – Tkachuk11:52
xG 0.12–0.51 (19%)attempts 7–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudbranson – Zadorov12:40
xG 0.40–0.22 (65%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Tanev – Kylington14:13
xG 0.59–0.44 (57%)attempts 15–10goals 2–1
- Hanifin – Andersson15:35
xG 0.29–0.59 (33%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestArmia – Lehkonen – Evans11:08
xG 0.51–0.14 (79%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Toffoli – Suzuki11:01
xG 0.36–0.34 (52%)attempts 8–11goals 1–1
- Gallagher – Anderson – Dvorak8:02
xG 0.27–0.26 (50%)attempts 4–11goals 0–1
- Belzile – Pezzetta – Poehling4:15
xG 0.07–0.08 (48%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSavard – Kulak13:40
xG 0.34–0.15 (69%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Petry – Chiarot15:26
xG 0.45–0.48 (48%)attempts 13–14goals 0–1
- Wideman – Romanov9:56
xG 0.18–0.38 (33%)attempts 5–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).