Thu, Nov 11, 2021·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Washington Capitals 2, Detroit Red Wings 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 210 | 012 | 07 | 229 |
| DET | 011 | 04 | 06 | 021 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:43WSHDmitry OrlovGWGAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Alex Ovechkin · Slap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 12:53WSHLars EllerAssists: Nick Jensen · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–0
Penalties (8)
- P1 19:46WSHTom Wilson: Holding2 min
- P2 5:56WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:46DETMoritz Seider: Interference2 min
- P2 8:57DETFilip Hronek: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 13:29DETMichael Rasmussen: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:42WSHConnor McMichael: Interference2 min
- P2 16:19WSHCarl Hagelin: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:25DETGustav Lindstrom: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Kuznetsov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestHagelin – Leason – Protas6:44
xG 0.35–0.04 (89%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Eller – Hathaway – Jonsson-Fjallby10:35
xG 0.51–0.43 (55%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Sheary – Sprong – McMichael8:02
xG 0.39–0.71 (35%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Wilson12:10
xG 0.18–0.63 (22%)attempts 5–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Jensen11:28
xG 0.71–0.29 (71%)attempts 17–9goals 2–0
- Schultz – Orlov3:23
xG 0.07–0.04 (64%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Carlson – Fehérváry14:00
xG 0.39–0.50 (44%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestNamestnikov – Erne – Rasmussen11:03
xG 0.35–0.15 (70%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Fabbri – Suter – Zadina8:40
xG 0.55–0.36 (60%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Gagner – Stephens – Smith4:37
xG 0.05–0.13 (27%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
- Bertuzzi – Larkin – Raymond10:44
xG 0.39–0.49 (44%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLeddy – Hronek15:43
xG 1.30–0.43 (75%)attempts 21–12goals 0–1
- Staal – Lindstrom8:48
xG 0.32–0.44 (42%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
- DeKeyser – Seider14:51
xG 0.17–0.55 (24%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).