Thu, Nov 11, 2021·Ball Arena, Denver
Vancouver Canucks 1, Colorado Avalanche 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 03 | 010 | 19 | 122 |
| COL | 312 | 314 | 19 | 735 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:18COLValeri NichushkinPPAssists: Nazem Kadri, Alex Newhook · Wrist, 0.23 xG0–1
- P1 7:34COLGabriel LandeskogGWGAssists: Cale Makar, Mikko Rantanen · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–2
- P1 11:10COLMikko RantanenUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–3
- P2 11:05COLLogan O'ConnorAssists: Samuel Girard, Devon Toews · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–4
- P2 16:32COLDarren HelmSHAssists: Logan O'Connor · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–5
- P2 19:54COLDevon ToewsAssists: Samuel Girard · Slap, 0.03 xG0–6
- P3 1:08VANNils HoglanderAssists: J.T. Miller · Backhand, 0.20 xG1–6
- P3 11:49COLMikko RantanenPPAssists: Cale Makar, Andre Burakovsky · Snap, 0.13 xG1–7
Penalties (5)
- P1 2:03VANVasily Podkolzin: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 4:37COLDarren Helm: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:34COLJack Johnson: Boarding2 min
- P3 10:21VANTucker Poolman: Match penatly 10 minutes10 min · PPG
- P3 14:38COLMikko Rantanen: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Horvat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestMiller – Pearson – Hoglander2:56
xG 0.39–0.26 (61%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Pearson – Horvat – Hoglander7:22
xG 0.27–0.16 (63%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Dickinson – Boeser – Pettersson7:48
xG 0.11–0.03 (78%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Horvat – Garland – Podkolzin2:26
xG 0.04–0.09 (31%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Hughes4:20
xG 0.41–0.32 (56%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Poolman – Hughes11:03
xG 0.32–0.25 (56%)attempts 12–5goals 0–1
- Ekman-Larsson – Burroughs3:04
xG 0.05–0.09 (38%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- Helm – Megna – Sherwood7:02
xG 0.20–0.17 (55%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Landeskog – Compher – Rantanen10:39
xG 0.60–0.60 (50%)attempts 10–12goals 2–1
- Jost – O'Connor – Newhook8:52
xG 0.08–0.22 (26%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Kadri – Burakovsky – Nichushkin10:58
xG 0.26–0.41 (39%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGirard – Byram3:36
xG 0.47–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- Toews – Girard5:33
xG 0.42–0.05 (89%)attempts 8–3goals 2–0
- Johnson – Johnson8:46
xG 0.26–0.04 (87%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).