Thu, Nov 11, 2021·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Minnesota Wild 2, Vegas Golden Knights 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 05 | 014 | 27 | 226 |
| VGK | 216 | 19 | 010 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:08VGKPaul CotterAssists: Nicolas Hague, Jonas Rondbjerg · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 16:41VGKJonas RondbjergAssists: Brett Howden, Brayden McNabb · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–2
- P2 19:53VGKJonathan MarchessaultGWGAssists: Reilly Smith · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–3
- P3 1:20MINJared SpurgeonAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Frederick Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–3
- P3 13:35MINRyan HartmanAssists: Jon Merrill, Dmitry Kulikov · Snap, 0.05 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 13:38VGKPaul Cotter: Slashing2 min
- P2 1:49MINAlex Goligoski: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:07MINFrederick Gaudreau: Delaying game2 min
- P2 11:05VGKShea Theodore: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:52VGKNicolas Hague: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 13:13VGKAlex Pietrangelo: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 2:33VGKBrett Howden: Delaying game face off violation2 min
- P3 18:57VGKJonathan Marchessault: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stephenson won the faceoff against Sturm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Fiala – Eriksson Ek8:38
xG 0.41–0.23 (64%)attempts 12–5goals 0–2
- Bjugstad – Greenway – Pitlick4:54
xG 0.01–0.13 (6%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Gaudreau – Kaprizov10:53
xG 0.44–0.78 (36%)attempts 8–17goals 1–0
- Hartman – Duhaime – Sturm7:45
xG 0.12–0.47 (20%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Kulikov – Merrill13:27
xG 0.27–0.55 (33%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Brodin – Dumba13:24
xG 0.40–0.69 (37%)attempts 11–19goals 0–1
- Goligoski – Spurgeon13:12
xG 0.22–0.57 (28%)attempts 8–12goals 1–1
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestDadonov – Stephenson – Kolesar10:37
xG 0.58–0.11 (84%)attempts 16–6goals 0–0
- Janmark – Amadio – Leschyshyn9:02
xG 0.56–0.20 (73%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
- Howden – Rondbjerg – Cotter6:24
xG 0.20–0.01 (93%)attempts 5–4goals 2–0
- Smith – Marchessault – Roy10:08
xG 0.42–0.73 (37%)attempts 11–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Coghlan8:06
xG 0.38–0.09 (81%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Martinez – Theodore2:49
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Theodore – Coghlan4:37
xG 0.23–0.08 (76%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).