Fri, Nov 12, 2021·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Edmonton Oilers 2, Buffalo Sabres 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 08 | 213 | 014 | 235 |
| BUF | 06 | 313 | 04 | 323 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:16BUFAnders BjorkUnassisted · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 4:08EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Jesse Puljujarvi, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 6:57EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Snap, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 13:56BUFDylan CozensAssists: Drake Caggiula · Slap, 0.16 xG2–2
- P2 19:10BUFDylan CozensGWGAssists: Vinnie Hinostroza, Mark Pysyk · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 11:23BUFZemgus Girgensons: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:44EDMJesse Puljujarvi: Interference2 min
- P1 14:17BUFArttu Ruotsalainen: High sticking2 min
- P1 18:55BUFMark Pysyk: Holding2 min
- P2 3:38BUFJacob Bryson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 4:49EDMDarnell Nurse: Holding2 min
- P2 5:59BUFColin Miller: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 8:40BUFRobert Hagg: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:43EDMBrendan Perlini: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cozens won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestDraisaitl – McDavid – Puljujarvi5:29
xG 0.57–0.04 (94%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Perlini – Foegele – McLeod6:02
xG 0.13–0.02 (87%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – Draisaitl – Yamamoto5:07
xG 0.11–0.02 (85%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Hyman – McDavid – Puljujarvi4:56
xG 0.37–0.30 (56%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestNurse – Bouchard18:03
xG 1.04–0.61 (63%)attempts 20–9goals 0–1
- Keith – Barrie3:18
xG 0.39–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 0–0
- Russell – Barrie8:46
xG 0.19–0.28 (41%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Asplund – Thompson11:47
xG 0.51–0.25 (67%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Hayden – Bjork – Ruotsalainen7:52
xG 0.18–0.24 (42%)attempts 6–13goals 1–0
- Hinostroza – Caggiula – Cozens10:11
xG 0.68–0.79 (46%)attempts 9–14goals 2–0
- Okposo – Eakin – Girgensons7:49
xG 0.04–0.18 (20%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Bryson14:24
xG 0.50–0.17 (75%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Pysyk – Dahlin12:56
xG 0.53–0.41 (57%)attempts 9–14goals 2–0
- Butcher – Hagg9:01
xG 0.27–0.48 (36%)attempts 6–16goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).