Sat, Nov 13, 2021·PNC Arena, Raleigh
St. Louis Blues 2, Carolina Hurricanes 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 06 | 113 | 110 | 229 |
| CAR | 17 | 19 | 18 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:15CARBrady SkjeiAssists: Sebastian Aho, Andrei Svechnikov · Snap, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 3:44CARSebastian AhoPPAssists: Tony DeAngelo, Andrei Svechnikov · Slap, 0.10 xG0–2
- P2 12:30STLPavel BuchnevichPPAssists: Robert Thomas, Jordan Kyrou · Snap, 0.28 xG1–2
- P3 0:48STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Ivan Barbashev, Robert Thomas · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–2
- P3 17:03CARBrendan SmithGWGAssists: Tony DeAngelo, Jordan Martinook · Slap, 0.02 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 9:39STLMarco Scandella: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:58CARAndrei Svechnikov: High sticking2 min
- P2 2:56STLMarco Scandella: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 10:30CARAndrei Svechnikov: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 14:36CARBrady Skjei: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:20CARSebastian Aho: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestO'Reilly – Buchnevich – Kyrou10:06
xG 0.50–0.21 (70%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Perron – Bozak – Saad9:11
xG 0.31–0.16 (66%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Tarasenko – Barbashev – Thomas9:18
xG 0.76–0.62 (55%)attempts 8–10goals 1–1
- Neal – Joshua – Kostin6:17
xG 0.03–0.38 (8%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Rosen14:18
xG 0.95–0.31 (75%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Bortuzzo – Walman11:15
xG 0.24–0.42 (37%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Scandella – Parayko13:33
xG 0.55–0.81 (40%)attempts 7–14goals 0–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStepan – Leivo – Kotkaniemi3:30
xG 0.30–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Stepan – Leivo – Martinook2:28
xG 0.10–0.03 (77%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Trocheck – Teravainen – Kotkaniemi3:24
xG 0.03–0.14 (16%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Trocheck – Teravainen – Martinook7:05
xG 0.15–0.27 (36%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Smith8:38
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Cole – Skjei5:49
xG 0.22–0.20 (52%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Skjei – DeAngelo13:43
xG 0.74–1.16 (39%)attempts 14–16goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).