Sat, Nov 13, 2021·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Philadelphia Flyers 2, Dallas Stars 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 019 | 16 | 19 | 234 |
| DAL | 17 | 210 | 214 | 531 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:23DALLuke GlendeningAssists: John Klingberg, Ryan Suter · Tip-in, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 12:22DALRoope HintzAssists: Denis Gurianov, Jason Robertson · Wrist, 0.25 xG0–2
- P2 16:36PHIJames van RiemsdykUnassisted · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 17:02DALTyler SeguinGWGAssists: Jacob Peterson, Andrej Sekera · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–3
- P3 2:27DALJoe PavelskiPPAssists: Roope Hintz, Alexander Radulov · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–4
- P3 8:07PHIIvan ProvorovPPAssists: Kevin Hayes, Ryan Ellis · Slap, 0.04 xG2–4
- P3 17:57DALRadek FaksaENAssists: Luke Glendening · Wrist, 0.52 xG2–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 7:17DALAlexander Radulov: Delaying game bench face off violation2 min
- P1 14:05DALJoe Pavelski: High sticking2 min
- P2 2:07DALTyler Seguin: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:37PHISean Couturier: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:16PHIKevin Hayes: Cross checking2 min
- P3 1:19PHIJoel Farabee: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 6:16DALAlexander Radulov: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Benn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – van Riemsdyk – Couturier10:27
xG 0.47–0.14 (77%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Brassard – Laughton – Konecny10:36
xG 0.55–0.54 (51%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
- Atkinson – Hayes – Farabee8:48
xG 0.10–0.32 (23%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Thompson – Lindblom – MacEwen8:25
xG 0.35–0.80 (31%)attempts 14–8goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestRistolainen – Sanheim16:17
xG 0.89–0.66 (57%)attempts 23–16goals 1–1
- Yandle – Ellis9:15
xG 0.36–0.60 (37%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
- Ellis – Provorov4:45
xG 0.12–0.66 (15%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Raffl – Gurianov7:46
xG 0.42–0.15 (73%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Hintz – Robertson9:22
xG 0.44–0.21 (68%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Radulov – Seguin – Peterson9:40
xG 0.35–0.23 (61%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Glendening – Faksa – Raffl3:51
xG 0.18–0.14 (56%)attempts 5–4goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Hakanpää9:57
xG 1.44–0.23 (86%)attempts 15–10goals 2–0
- Suter – Klingberg15:17
xG 0.55–0.40 (58%)attempts 16–16goals 1–0
- Suter – Heiskanen3:31
xG 0.28–0.15 (65%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).