Sat, Nov 13, 2021·Ball Arena, Denver
San Jose Sharks 2, Colorado Avalanche 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 112 | 08 | 110 | 230 |
| COL | 210 | 211 | 210 | 631 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:17SJSLogan CoutureAssists: Mario Ferraro, Timo Meier · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 10:10COLDevon ToewsPPAssists: Samuel Girard, Nazem Kadri · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P1 13:55COLNazem KadriAssists: Valeri Nichushkin, Jack Johnson · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 12:38COLAlex NewhookGWGAssists: Samuel Girard, Jayson Megna · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–3
- P2 15:33COLLogan O'ConnorSHAssists: Darren Helm, Erik Johnson · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–4
- P3 9:02SJSAlexander BarabanovPPAssists: Tomas Hertl, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–4
- P3 10:13COLAndre BurakovskyAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Samuel Girard · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–5
- P3 16:37COLSamuel GirardENAssists: Nazem Kadri · Wrist, 0.66 xG2–6
Penalties (7)
- P1 4:50SJSBrent Burns: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 8:30SJSKevin Labanc: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 14:18SJSJake Middleton: Interference2 min
- P1 19:50SJSNick Merkley: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 14:54COLAlex Newhook: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:07SJSBrent Burns: High sticking2 min
- P3 7:46COLSamuel Girard: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couture won the faceoff against Compher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestCouture – Meier – Dahlen11:50
xG 0.56–0.42 (58%)attempts 12–9goals 1–1
- Cogliano – Merkley – Weatherby6:33
xG 0.29–0.17 (63%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Bonino – Nieto – Labanc7:54
xG 0.17–0.10 (63%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Hertl – Balcers – Barabanov10:27
xG 0.22–0.31 (42%)attempts 9–13goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Simek11:15
xG 0.66–0.22 (75%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Middleton10:30
xG 0.66–0.30 (69%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Burns – Ferraro19:29
xG 0.47–0.70 (40%)attempts 10–16goals 1–2
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestHelm – Megna – O'Connor2:09
xG 0.10–0.02 (84%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Landeskog – Rantanen – O'Connor7:20
xG 0.21–0.13 (61%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Megna – Jost – Newhook2:42
xG 0.08–0.02 (83%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Helm – Megna – Sherwood3:50
xG 0.11–0.07 (63%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Johnson12:20
xG 0.52–0.25 (68%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Murray – Girard12:19
xG 0.57–0.71 (44%)attempts 13–11goals 2–1
- Toews – Makar12:55
xG 0.28–0.62 (31%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).