Sat, Nov 13, 2021·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Minnesota Wild 4, Seattle Kraken 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 16 | 29 | 17 | 422 |
| SEA | 03 | 013 | 214 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:33MINRem PitlickAssists: Ryan Hartman, Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–0
- P2 7:44MINRem PitlickAssists: Ryan Hartman · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–0
- P2 19:20MINRem PitlickGWGAssists: Ryan Hartman · Wrist, 0.26 xG3–0
- P3 9:19SEAMarcus JohanssonPPAssists: Alexander Wennberg, Jordan Eberle · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–1
- P3 14:54MINNico SturmENAssists: Marcus Foligno · Backhand, 0.77 xG4–1
- P3 18:58SEAAlexander WennbergAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Marcus Johansson · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–2
Penalties (4)
- P2 14:42MINJordan Greenway: Interference2 min
- P3 7:58MINMathew Dumba: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 11:26MINMarcus Foligno: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:21SEAJared McCann: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Wennberg won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestHartman – Greenway – Pitlick9:50
xG 0.75–0.57 (57%)attempts 6–10goals 3–0
- Zuccarello – Gaudreau – Kaprizov12:31
xG 0.24–0.14 (64%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Foligno – Fiala – Eriksson Ek11:57
xG 0.09–0.29 (25%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Bjugstad – Duhaime – Sturm7:56
xG 0.12–0.41 (23%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Spurgeon14:31
xG 0.54–0.38 (58%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Brodin – Dumba17:20
xG 0.52–0.49 (51%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
- Kulikov – Merrill12:30
xG 0.49–0.64 (43%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestBlackwell – Tanev – Geekie6:23
xG 0.33–0.18 (65%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Johansson – McCann – Donato9:13
xG 0.56–0.49 (53%)attempts 13–7goals 0–2
- Jarnkrok – Donskoi – Gourde12:18
xG 0.28–0.24 (54%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Eberle – Schwartz – Wennberg13:49
xG 0.30–0.37 (45%)attempts 6–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSoucy – Dunn9:26
xG 0.52–0.30 (63%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
- Oleksiak – Soucy3:49
xG 0.10–0.01 (88%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Giordano – Oleksiak11:04
xG 0.33–0.25 (56%)attempts 12–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).