Sun, Nov 14, 2021·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Edmonton Oilers 5, St. Louis Blues 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 19 | 313 | 110 | 532 |
| STL | 114 | 115 | 210 | 439 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:18STLJordan KyrouPPAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Robert Thomas · Snap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 19:55EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Zach Hyman, Cody Ceci · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 2:51EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Zach Hyman · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 9:58STLRobert BortuzzoAssists: Tyler Bozak, David Perron · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
- P2 16:11EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Kailer Yamamoto · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–2
- P2 16:19EDMRyan McLeodAssists: Warren Foegele, Kyle Turris · Backhand, 0.09 xG4–2
- P3 4:06STLIvan BarbashevAssists: Robert Thomas, Colton Parayko · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–3
- P3 7:48STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Robert Thomas · Backhand, 0.12 xG4–4
- P3 19:32EDMKailer YamamotoGWGAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Darnell Nurse · Snap, 0.10 xG5–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 8:37EDMDarnell Nurse: Hooking2 min
- P1 9:53STLRobert Thomas: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:28EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:11EDMColton Sceviour: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 2:28STLRobert Thomas: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 11:59EDMConnor McDavid: Interference2 min
- P2 18:34EDMLeon Draisaitl: Holding2 min
- P3 5:12STLTyler Bozak: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Draisaitl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestNugent-Hopkins – Draisaitl – Yamamoto13:39
xG 0.73–0.22 (77%)attempts 12–6goals 2–1
- Draisaitl – McDavid – Puljujarvi2:17
xG 0.25–0.18 (57%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Sceviour – Ryan – Benson3:40
xG 0.08–0.12 (38%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
- Hyman – McDavid – Puljujarvi14:16
xG 0.52–0.66 (44%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Ceci16:12
xG 0.80–0.72 (53%)attempts 14–10goals 1–1
- Russell – Barrie12:39
xG 0.28–0.29 (49%)attempts 7–9goals 1–1
- Nurse – Bouchard17:15
xG 0.67–1.32 (34%)attempts 14–22goals 1–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestO'Reilly – Buchnevich – Kyrou10:10
xG 0.70–0.15 (82%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Neal – Joshua – Kostin4:00
xG 0.33–0.07 (83%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Tarasenko – Barbashev – Thomas10:30
xG 0.42–0.64 (40%)attempts 8–16goals 0–2
- Perron – Bozak – Saad11:46
xG 0.26–0.53 (33%)attempts 8–8goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestBortuzzo – Walman9:15
xG 0.84–0.16 (84%)attempts 14–4goals 2–1
- Scandella – Faulk6:31
xG 0.90–0.35 (72%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Parayko – Rosen8:12
xG 0.21–0.22 (49%)attempts 6–5goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).