Mon, Nov 15, 2021·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Detroit Red Wings 3, Columbus Blue Jackets 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 17 | 17 | 113 | 327 |
| CBJ | 010 | 217 | 311 | 538 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:45DETDylan LarkinAssists: Lucas Raymond · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
- P2 4:23DETMichael RasmussenAssists: Vladislav Namestnikov, Filip Hronek · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–0
- P2 13:07CBJBoone JennerAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Andrew Peeke · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–1
- P2 14:55CBJAdam BoqvistAssists: Egor Chinakhov, Gavin Bayreuther · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–2
- P3 13:31DETLucas RaymondAssists: Tyler Bertuzzi, Dylan Larkin · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–2
- P3 15:42CBJEgor ChinakhovAssists: Jakub Voracek, Cole Sillinger · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–3
- P3 18:41CBJZach WerenskiGWGAssists: Gustav Nyquist · Slap, 0.03 xG3–4
- P3 19:57CBJAlexandre TexierENAssists: Eric Robinson, Sean Kuraly · Wrist, 0.74 xG3–5
Penalties (6)
- P2 6:06DETDanny DeKeyser: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 9:18DETPius Suter: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:23CBJGavin Bayreuther: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:23DETAdam Erne: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:10CBJVladislav Gavrikov: Holding2 min
- P3 6:01DETSam Gagner: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Rasmussen won the faceoff against Kuraly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- Gagner – Rowney – Veleno7:54
xG 0.27–0.26 (51%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
- Fabbri – Suter – Zadina9:43
xG 0.24–0.23 (51%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Bertuzzi – Larkin – Raymond12:36
xG 0.71–0.76 (48%)attempts 12–14goals 2–1
- Namestnikov – Erne – Rasmussen12:27
xG 0.19–0.39 (33%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeKeyser – Seider17:07
xG 0.72–0.59 (55%)attempts 18–14goals 1–1
- Staal – Lindstrom11:36
xG 0.36–0.35 (51%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
- Leddy – Hronek15:56
xG 0.50–0.78 (39%)attempts 11–15goals 1–2
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestNyquist – Jenner – Bjorkstrand14:07
xG 0.96–0.38 (72%)attempts 18–10goals 2–2
- Voracek – Chinakhov – Sillinger10:36
xG 0.49–0.30 (63%)attempts 9–9goals 2–0
- Hofmann – Roslovic – Danforth7:12
xG 0.19–0.10 (66%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Kuraly – Texier – Robinson11:22
xG 0.31–0.28 (52%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWerenski – Bean17:12
xG 0.66–0.34 (66%)attempts 17–13goals 1–0
- Gavrikov – Peeke14:21
xG 0.62–0.65 (49%)attempts 14–13goals 1–2
- Bayreuther – Boqvist11:15
xG 0.26–0.34 (43%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).