Tue, Nov 16, 2021·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Calgary Flames 1, Philadelphia Flyers 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 112 | 017 | 05 | 00 | 134 |
| PHI | 011 | 116 | 014 | 12 | 243 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:31CGYOliver KylingtonAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Elias Lindholm · Snap, 0.01 xG1–0
- P2 4:37PHIKevin HayesAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- OT 0:45PHICam AtkinsonGWGAssists: Sean Couturier, Ivan Provorov · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 4:46PHIDerick Brassard: High sticking2 min
- P1 11:54CGYMikael Backlund: Boarding2 min
- P1 13:23CGYAndrew Mangiapane: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 16:36CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Interference2 min
- P2 0:32PHIScott Laughton: Cross checking2 min
- P2 2:38CGYRasmus Andersson: Penalty shot holding on breakaway0 min
- P2 5:19PHIJustin Braun: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:19CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:21CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:49PHIJames van Riemsdyk: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:49CGYBlake Coleman: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Lindholm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Lindholm – Tkachuk10:33
xG 1.08–0.37 (74%)attempts 16–12goals 1–0
- Richardson – Lucic – Pitlick7:17
xG 0.18–0.18 (50%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Coleman – Monahan – Mangiapane9:56
xG 0.19–0.46 (29%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
- Lewis – Backlund – Dube8:35
xG 0.09–0.65 (12%)attempts 3–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – Kylington14:19
xG 0.94–0.52 (64%)attempts 15–16goals 1–0
- Hanifin – Andersson12:39
xG 0.42–0.60 (41%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
- Gudbranson – Zadorov13:43
xG 0.32–0.73 (31%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestBrassard – Laughton – Konecny5:58
xG 0.48–0.01 (98%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Couturier – Laughton4:44
xG 0.27–0.04 (87%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Thompson – van Riemsdyk – MacEwen2:25
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Giroux – van Riemsdyk – Couturier7:01
xG 0.49–0.68 (42%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRistolainen – Sanheim14:53
xG 1.26–0.50 (72%)attempts 19–11goals 1–0
- Yandle – Seeler8:29
xG 0.47–0.21 (70%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Braun – Provorov12:55
xG 0.55–1.13 (33%)attempts 13–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).