Tue, Nov 16, 2021·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Edmonton Oilers 2, Winnipeg Jets 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 09 | 011 | 214 | 234 |
| WPG | 112 | 314 | 19 | 535 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:09WPGAdam LowryUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 6:59WPGNikolaj EhlersAssists: Andrew Copp, Josh Morrissey · Slap, 0.06 xG0–2
- P2 10:01WPGPierre-Luc DuboisPPGWGAssists: Josh Morrissey, Nate Schmidt · Tip-in, 0.23 xG0–3
- P2 19:22WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Logan Stanley, Dylan DeMelo · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–4
- P3 2:32EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Darnell Nurse · Slap, 0.11 xG1–4
- P3 3:48EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.49 xG2–4
- P3 18:23WPGKyle ConnorENAssists: Blake Wheeler · Wrist, 0.63 xG2–5
Penalties (7)
- P2 1:43EDMKyle Turris: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:23WPGNikolaj Ehlers: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:15EDMLeon Draisaitl: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 12:19WPGJosh Morrissey: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 1:19WPGAndrew Copp: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 2:26WPGLogan Stanley: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P3 12:15EDMConnor McDavid: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubois won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – McDavid – Puljujarvi6:12
xG 0.49–0.22 (69%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Draisaitl – McDavid – Puljujarvi9:24
xG 0.70–0.46 (60%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Hyman – Nugent-Hopkins – Yamamoto4:59
xG 0.26–0.08 (77%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Kassian – Foegele – McLeod8:48
xG 0.15–0.15 (50%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBarrie – Nurse17:04
xG 1.17–0.70 (63%)attempts 25–12goals 0–0
- Keith – Bouchard4:43
xG 0.09–0.06 (59%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
- Keith – Ceci9:14
xG 0.33–0.57 (37%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Connor – Dubois13:05
xG 0.99–0.69 (59%)attempts 16–16goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Copp – Ehlers13:48
xG 0.70–0.55 (56%)attempts 12–13goals 2–0
- Nash – Toninato – Vesalainen3:46
xG 0.01–0.11 (11%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Lowry – Harkins – Svechnikov9:11
xG 0.15–0.31 (32%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchmidt – Morrissey17:12
xG 1.13–0.89 (56%)attempts 19–20goals 1–0
- Dillon – Pionk15:25
xG 0.81–0.69 (54%)attempts 15–17goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Stanley10:52
xG 0.17–0.22 (44%)attempts 4–9goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).