Tue, Nov 16, 2021·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Carolina Hurricanes 4, Vegas Golden Knights 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 215 | 019 | 28 | 442 |
| VGK | 07 | 29 | 07 | 223 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:07CARTony DeAngeloAssists: Martin Necas, Vincent Trocheck · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 19:03CARSebastian AhoPPAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Andrei Svechnikov · Wrist, 0.26 xG2–0
- P2 2:53VGKBrett HowdenAssists: Ben Hutton, Dylan Coghlan · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 4:12VGKShea TheodoreAssists: Mark Stone, Chandler Stephenson · Backhand, 0.17 xG2–2
- P3 1:11CARSeth JarvisGWGAssists: Ethan Bear, Sebastian Aho · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–2
- P3 13:41CARVincent TrocheckAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Martin Necas · Wrist, 0.17 xG4–2
Penalties (3)
- P1 17:55VGKKeegan Kolesar: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 9:09CARSeth Jarvis: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 5:09VGKNicolas Roy: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Roy
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestTrocheck – Teravainen – Necas13:44
xG 0.53–0.05 (92%)attempts 17–1goals 1–0
- Martinook – Lorentz – Kotkaniemi8:26
xG 0.49–0.33 (60%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
- Staal – Niederreiter – Fast11:32
xG 0.31–0.18 (63%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Aho – Svechnikov – Jarvis12:12
xG 0.96–0.91 (51%)attempts 19–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSkjei – DeAngelo15:15
xG 1.10–0.40 (73%)attempts 21–7goals 2–0
- Smith – Slavin2:00
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Cole – Smith11:47
xG 0.48–0.23 (67%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Kolesar – Roy10:01
xG 0.51–0.24 (68%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Stone – Stephenson14:07
xG 0.68–0.73 (48%)attempts 11–14goals 1–1
- Howden – Rondbjerg – Cotter6:16
xG 0.05–0.26 (17%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Janmark – Amadio – Leschyshyn8:58
xG 0.15–0.49 (24%)attempts 2–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Theodore14:29
xG 1.03–0.40 (72%)attempts 11–18goals 1–1
- Pietrangelo – Hutton3:48
xG 0.13–0.08 (62%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
- Pietrangelo – Theodore2:04
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).