Tue, Nov 16, 2021·Honda Center, Anaheim
Washington Capitals 2, Anaheim Ducks 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 08 | 06 | 214 | 02 | 230 |
| ANA | 111 | 011 | 17 | 12 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:32ANACam FowlerAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Troy Terry · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P3 5:36WSHGarrett PilonAssists: Martin Fehérváry, John Carlson · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–1
- P3 10:00ANATrevor ZegrasAssists: Sonny Milano, Kevin Shattenkirk · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
- P3 17:28WSHTom WilsonAssists: John Carlson, Martin Fehérváry · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–2
- OT 4:14ANATrevor ZegrasGWGAssists: Hampus Lindholm, Adam Henrique · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–3
Penalties (2)
- P2 7:43WSHAxel Jonsson-Fjallby: Elbowing2 min
- OT 4:14ANATrevor Zegras: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Getzlaf won the faceoff against Kuznetsov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestSheary – Sprong – McMichael5:43
xG 0.57–0.11 (84%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Wilson – Jonsson-Fjallby – McMichael5:21
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0
- Hathaway – Sprong – Protas3:55
xG 0.42–0.20 (67%)attempts 7–2goals 0–1
- Hagelin – Leason – Protas6:26
xG 0.18–0.07 (72%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Jensen16:36
xG 1.08–0.48 (69%)attempts 16–16goals 0–1
- Carlson – Fehérváry17:44
xG 0.63–0.27 (70%)attempts 20–9goals 2–1
- Schultz – van Riemsdyk17:54
xG 0.67–0.71 (49%)attempts 18–17goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Henrique – Terry14:06
xG 0.41–0.34 (55%)attempts 14–13goals 1–0
- Grant – Carrick – Steel12:08
xG 0.27–0.23 (54%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Silfverberg – Lundeström – McTavish10:45
xG 0.19–0.60 (24%)attempts 7–17goals 0–0
- Deslauriers – Milano – Zegras11:46
xG 0.29–0.77 (28%)attempts 8–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestFowler – Manson20:00
xG 1.05–0.48 (69%)attempts 27–15goals 1–0
- Shattenkirk – Lindholm2:45
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Drysdale17:11
xG 0.31–0.69 (31%)attempts 7–20goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).