Wed, Nov 17, 2021·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Chicago Blackhawks 4, Seattle Kraken 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 18 | 16 | 25 | 419 |
| SEA | 03 | 016 | 214 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:03CHISeth JonesAssists: Alex DeBrincat, Patrick Kane · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 2:01CHIAlex DeBrincatAssists: Kirby Dach · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–0
- P3 5:36CHIPatrick KaneGWGAssists: Philipp Kurashev, Connor Murphy · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–0
- P3 14:15SEAJared McCannPPAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Morgan Geekie · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–1
- P3 18:11SEAYanni GourdeAssists: Vince Dunn, Jordan Eberle · Slap, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 19:34CHIJake McCabeENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.49 xG4–2
Penalties (5)
- P3 1:20SEAVince Dunn: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:49SEAYanni Gourde: Fighting5 min
- P3 2:49CHIAlex DeBrincat: Fighting5 min
- P3 2:49CHISeth Jones: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:38CHIKirby Dach: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Carpenter won the faceoff against Gourde
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestKane – DeBrincat – Dach12:53
xG 0.81–0.38 (68%)attempts 12–10goals 2–0
- Carpenter – Kurashev – Johnson9:04
xG 0.10–0.05 (68%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Kubalik – Strome – Borgstrom3:30
xG 0.12–0.27 (31%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Toews – Khaira – Kubalik10:30
xG 0.09–0.54 (15%)attempts 5–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestde Haan – Jones12:43
xG 0.62–0.02 (96%)attempts 9–5goals 2–0
- Jones – Jones4:26
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Gustafsson – Stillman10:02
xG 0.27–0.36 (43%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestJohansson – Jarnkrok – McCann9:33
xG 0.49–0.22 (70%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Gourde – Donato – Tanev3:23
xG 0.15–0.01 (92%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Donskoi – Donato – Geekie6:08
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Blackwell – Gourde – Tanev9:40
xG 0.02–0.20 (8%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Dunn17:13
xG 0.26–0.19 (57%)attempts 14–7goals 0–1
- Giordano – Dunn2:00
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Oleksiak – Lauzon13:51
xG 0.48–0.44 (52%)attempts 11–5goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).