Thu, Nov 18, 2021·Centre Bell, Montreal
Pittsburgh Penguins 6, Montréal Canadiens 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 316 | 215 | 112 | 643 |
| MTL | 05 | 09 | 010 | 024 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:36PITSidney CrosbyGWGAssists: Jake Guentzel, Bryan Rust · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 12:38PITDanton HeinenPPAssists: John Marino, Kasperi Kapanen · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–0
- P1 19:12PITJake GuentzelAssists: Bryan Rust, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–0
- P2 13:49PITTeddy BluegerAssists: Zachary Aston-Reese · Wrist, 0.18 xG4–0
- P2 16:12PITBrock McGinnAssists: Mike Matheson, Teddy Blueger · Tip-in, 0.09 xG5–0
- P3 19:49PITTeddy BluegerAssists: Zachary Aston-Reese, John Marino · Wrist, 0.21 xG6–0
Penalties (2)
- P1 4:06PITBryan Rust: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:38MTLJoel Armia: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Evans won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestBlueger – McGinn – Aston-Reese10:47
xG 1.29–0.50 (72%)attempts 17–10goals 3–0
- Heinen – Rodrigues – Simon10:00
xG 0.62–0.02 (97%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rust – Guentzel14:12
xG 0.52–0.31 (63%)attempts 11–14goals 2–0
- Carter – Zucker – Kapanen14:24
xG 0.19–0.68 (22%)attempts 8–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Dumoulin16:42
xG 1.15–0.42 (74%)attempts 18–17goals 2–0
- Matheson – Ruhwedel14:50
xG 0.94–0.46 (67%)attempts 21–11goals 1–0
- Pettersson – Marino17:38
xG 0.61–0.57 (52%)attempts 11–16goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- Gallagher – Lehkonen – Evans11:50
xG 0.35–0.40 (47%)attempts 17–8goals 0–1
- Anderson – Drouin – Dvorak12:53
xG 0.68–0.82 (45%)attempts 14–16goals 0–1
- Toffoli – Suzuki – Caufield11:21
xG 0.40–0.55 (42%)attempts 8–10goals 0–2
- Armia – Pezzetta – Poehling7:04
xG 0.00–0.93 (0%)attempts 0–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Petry – Chiarot16:49
xG 0.79–0.80 (50%)attempts 20–14goals 0–3
- Kulak – Romanov14:24
xG 0.15–0.49 (23%)attempts 7–15goals 0–1
- Savard – Norlinder14:23
xG 0.53–1.51 (26%)attempts 12–20goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).