Thu, Nov 18, 2021·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
San Jose Sharks 1, St. Louis Blues 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 013 | 18 | 06 | 127 |
| STL | 116 | 219 | 113 | 448 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:25STLBrandon SaadPPAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, David Perron · Tip-in, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 1:35STLRobert ThomasGWGAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Scott Perunovich · Snap, 0.11 xG0–2
- P2 8:16SJSJonathan DahlenAssists: Timo Meier · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 10:17STLBrandon SaadAssists: Oskar Sundqvist, Ivan Barbashev · Snap, 0.14 xG1–3
- P3 1:09STLJordan KyrouAssists: David Perron · Snap, 0.15 xG1–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 0:03STLRobert Bortuzzo: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:03SJSJake Middleton: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:59SJSKevin Labanc: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 2:13SJSJonah Gadjovich: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:48SJSBrent Burns: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:18SJSJasper Weatherby: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barbashev won the faceoff against Bonino
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestCouture – Meier – Dahlen12:20
xG 0.60–0.47 (56%)attempts 12–16goals 1–0
- Cogliano – Bonino – Nieto5:45
xG 0.44–0.38 (54%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Nieto – Gadjovich – Weatherby2:24
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Hertl – Balcers – Barabanov7:52
xG 0.28–0.32 (47%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Middleton13:54
xG 0.67–0.58 (54%)attempts 12–14goals 0–1
- Vlasic – Hatakka8:11
xG 0.40–0.44 (48%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
- Vlasic – Karlsson2:18
xG 0.10–0.22 (31%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestTarasenko – Buchnevich – Thomas12:10
xG 0.78–0.49 (62%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Saad – Sundqvist – Barbashev10:09
xG 0.47–0.51 (48%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Perron – O'Reilly – Kyrou12:06
xG 0.51–0.60 (46%)attempts 15–13goals 1–1
- Neal – Bozak – Kostin7:32
xG 0.14–0.61 (19%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Perunovich15:35
xG 0.92–0.82 (53%)attempts 18–13goals 3–1
- Krug – Parayko17:27
xG 0.78–0.88 (47%)attempts 21–15goals 0–0
- Bortuzzo – Scandella11:27
xG 0.40–0.74 (35%)attempts 8–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).