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Ice Lab

Thu, Nov 18, 2021·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul

Dallas Stars 2, Minnesota Wild 7

Away

Dallas Stars

2

Final

Home

Minnesota Wild

7

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 71% of the time.

MIN winsDAL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
DAL01107220238
MIN2111946726

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 9:24MINRem PitlickAssists: Nico Sturm, Brandon Duhaime · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
  2. P1 15:09MINKirill KaprizovAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Victor Rask · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–2
  3. P2 18:59MINRyan HartmanGWGAssists: Alex Goligoski, Kevin Fiala · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–3
  4. P3 3:50DALJacob PetersonAssists: Tyler Seguin, Luke Glendening · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–3
  5. P3 7:15MINAlex GoligoskiAssists: Joel Eriksson Ek, Jordan Greenway · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–4
  6. P3 8:53MINFrederick GaudreauAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Victor Rask · Snap, 0.16 xG1–5
  7. P3 12:38DALJamie BennPPAssists: Esa Lindell, Denis Gurianov · Wrist, 0.39 xG2–5
  8. P3 13:07MINMats ZuccarelloAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–6
  9. P3 13:52MINVictor RaskAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Mats Zuccarello · Deflected, 0.08 xG2–7
Penalties (14)
  1. P1 1:19DALMiro Heiskanen: Cross checking2 min
  2. P1 11:22MINMathew Dumba: Hooking2 min
  3. P2 2:24DALAndrej Sekera: Holding2 min
  4. P2 3:18MINKevin Fiala: Hooking2 min
  5. P2 6:53MINBrandon Duhaime: Hooking2 min
  6. P2 12:48DALJani Hakanpää: Cross checking2 min
  7. P2 19:17DALMiro Heiskanen: Interference2 min
  8. P3 4:50MINJordan Greenway: Hooking2 min
  9. P3 10:38DALRadek Faksa: Roughing2 min
  10. P3 10:38MINBrandon Duhaime: Roughing2 min · PPG
  11. P3 10:38MINRem Pitlick: High sticking2 min
  12. P3 15:42MINBrandon Duhaime: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  13. P3 18:14MINBrandon Duhaime: Fighting5 min
  14. P3 18:14DALRadek Faksa: Fighting5 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

DAL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0MIN
48% to win52% to win
← DAL attackMIN attack →
  1. P1 20:00Eriksson Ek won the faceoff against Benn
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

DALMIN
38Shots on goal26
3.8Expected goals2.5
66Shot attempts50
37Faceoffs won27
6Power plays4
15Penalty minutes19
9Hits11
14Blocked shots12
4Giveaways6
4Takeaways4

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Dallas Stars

Forward lines

  1. bestBenn – Raffl – Gurianov7:37

    xG 0.49–0.13 (79%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0

  2. Glendening – Faksa – Kiviranta3:22

    xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0

  3. Radulov – Seguin – Peterson3:15

    xG 0.28–0.32 (47%)attempts 4–6goals 0–2

  4. Pavelski – Hintz – Robertson6:11

    xG 0.15–0.21 (41%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1

Defence pairs

  1. bestLindell – Heiskanen12:05

    xG 0.47–0.02 (97%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0

  2. Sekera – Hakanpää7:51

    xG 0.12–0.20 (37%)attempts 6–9goals 0–2

  3. Suter – Klingberg10:47

    xG 0.50–0.75 (40%)attempts 10–11goals 1–2

Minnesota Wild

Forward lines

  1. bestPitlick – Duhaime – Sturm7:11

    xG 0.47–0.33 (59%)attempts 9–10goals 1–1

  2. Foligno – Greenway – Eriksson Ek7:17

    xG 0.21–0.09 (70%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0

  3. Rask – Gaudreau – Kaprizov5:07

    xG 0.21–0.11 (66%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0

  4. Zuccarello – Rask – Kaprizov3:56

    xG 0.23–0.16 (59%)attempts 4–5goals 3–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestKulikov – Merrill10:23

    xG 0.48–0.16 (75%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0

  2. Goligoski – Spurgeon13:54

    xG 0.79–0.57 (58%)attempts 15–13goals 4–0

  3. Brodin – Dumba12:43

    xG 0.24–0.61 (28%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

MIN 2.5 xGDAL 3.8 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

MINDAL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 41/100 · #820 of 1312 this seasonSwing 0.78 · 6 goals in reachComeback index 51% (winner's lowest chance)
DAL 100%5050%50MIN 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +22 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 71% of the time.

MIN winsDAL wins

Simulated goal difference (MIN − DAL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).