Thu, Nov 18, 2021·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Winnipeg Jets 1, Edmonton Oilers 2 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 017 | 012 | 110 | 08 | 0 | 147 |
| EDM | 011 | 09 | 111 | 01 | 2 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 13:57WPGNikolaj EhlersAssists: Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor · Slap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P3 14:25EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Cody Ceci, Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. EDM Leon Draisaitl stopped
- 2. WPG Kyle Connor stopped
- 3. EDM Connor McDavid scored
- 4. WPG Mark Scheifele stopped
- 5. EDM Kyle Turris scored
Penalties (10)
- P1 4:38EDMZack Kassian: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:38WPGLogan Stanley: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:11EDMDarnell Nurse: Roughing2 min
- P1 5:11WPGPierre-Luc Dubois: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:34WPGEvgeny Svechnikov: High sticking2 min
- P2 3:36EDMSlater Koekkoek: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:21WPGKyle Connor: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:37EDMTyler Benson: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:57EDMTyler Benson: Cross checking2 min
- P3 19:16EDMConnor McDavid: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Dubois
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Connor – Dubois13:05
xG 0.72–0.37 (66%)attempts 19–11goals 0–0
- Lowry – Harkins – Svechnikov9:58
xG 0.41–0.22 (65%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Nash – Toninato – Vesalainen3:30
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Copp – Ehlers12:17
xG 0.49–1.29 (27%)attempts 11–23goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDillon – Pionk16:16
xG 0.58–0.46 (56%)attempts 17–12goals 1–0
- DeMelo – Stanley9:49
xG 0.41–0.40 (51%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
- Schmidt – Morrissey15:34
xG 0.76–1.20 (39%)attempts 16–25goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – McDavid – Puljujarvi13:11
xG 1.19–0.48 (71%)attempts 20–13goals 1–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – Draisaitl – Yamamoto13:19
xG 0.54–0.36 (60%)attempts 17–13goals 0–1
- Turris – Sceviour – Benson3:12
xG 0.07–0.12 (37%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Kassian – Foegele – McLeod8:41
xG 0.23–0.35 (40%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Ceci15:47
xG 0.79–0.62 (56%)attempts 20–18goals 1–0
- Keith – Bouchard3:19
xG 0.22–0.12 (65%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Barrie – Nurse18:17
xG 0.96–0.90 (52%)attempts 18–21goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).