Thu, Nov 18, 2021·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Detroit Red Wings 2, Vegas Golden Knights 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 013 | 18 | 17 | 228 |
| VGK | 08 | 414 | 110 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:31VGKNicolas HagueAssists: Evgenii Dadonov, Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–1
- P2 5:56VGKZach WhitecloudAssists: Mark Stone, Brett Howden · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 10:19DETGivani SmithAssists: Dylan Larkin, Robby Fabbri · Backhand, 0.19 xG1–2
- P2 12:32VGKZach WhitecloudGWGAssists: Nicolas Roy · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–3
- P2 19:06VGKPaul CotterAssists: Keegan Kolesar · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–4
- P3 5:19VGKReilly SmithAssists: Mattias Janmark, Jake Leschyshyn · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–5
- P3 18:34DETJoseph VelenoAssists: Sam Gagner · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 11:36DETDanny DeKeyser: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:59DETLucas Raymond: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:48VGKBen Hutton: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:48DETAdam Erne: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:21VGKBrayden McNabb: Closing hand on puck2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stephenson won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- Bertuzzi – Larkin – Raymond12:33
xG 0.46–0.46 (50%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Namestnikov – Erne – Rasmussen8:02
xG 0.29–0.45 (39%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
- Fabbri – Suter – Zadina12:28
xG 0.47–0.64 (42%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
- Gagner – Smith – Veleno9:23
xG 0.38–0.63 (38%)attempts 7–10goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestLeddy – Lindstrom2:21
xG 0.25–0.20 (56%)attempts 1–2goals 1–0
- Leddy – Hronek15:57
xG 0.56–0.66 (46%)attempts 15–12goals 0–2
- Oesterle – Lindstrom14:07
xG 0.29–0.47 (38%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestHowden – Rondbjerg – Cotter9:27
xG 0.67–0.20 (77%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Stone – Stephenson12:54
xG 0.92–0.56 (62%)attempts 13–14goals 1–0
- Smith – Kolesar – Roy3:46
xG 0.14–0.03 (83%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Baertschi – Janmark – Leschyshyn2:29
xG 0.05–0.11 (32%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Coghlan9:31
xG 0.65–0.13 (84%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- McNabb – Whitecloud8:32
xG 0.29–0.06 (84%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Hutton – Whitecloud10:14
xG 0.22–0.13 (62%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).