Thu, Nov 18, 2021·Honda Center, Anaheim
Carolina Hurricanes 2, Anaheim Ducks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 111 | 012 | 18 | 231 |
| ANA | 117 | 09 | 06 | 132 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:44CAREthan BearAssists: Martin Necas · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 11:03ANATroy TerryAssists: Adam Henrique, Ryan Getzlaf · Tip-in, 0.17 xG1–1
- P3 9:34CARSeth JarvisGWGUnassisted · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–1
Penalties (6)
- P2 3:26CARMartin Necas: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 10:45CARTeuvo Teravainen: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:08CARAndrei Svechnikov: Elbowing2 min
- P2 14:08ANAJosh Manson: Cross checking2 min
- P2 15:15ANAHampus Lindholm: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 1:20ANACam Fowler: Penalty shot holding on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Getzlaf won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestAho – Svechnikov – Jarvis15:20
xG 1.14–0.40 (74%)attempts 24–11goals 1–0
- Trocheck – Teravainen – Necas12:19
xG 0.51–0.34 (60%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Martinook – Lorentz – Kotkaniemi7:46
xG 0.15–0.21 (42%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Staal – Niederreiter – Fast11:50
xG 0.33–1.21 (21%)attempts 8–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSlavin – Bear17:09
xG 1.21–0.66 (65%)attempts 24–15goals 2–1
- Cole – DeAngelo14:20
xG 0.65–0.38 (63%)attempts 19–10goals 0–0
- Skjei – Pesce17:08
xG 0.26–1.28 (17%)attempts 15–19goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Henrique – Terry13:40
xG 1.15–0.27 (81%)attempts 16–11goals 1–0
- Silfverberg – Lundeström – McTavish9:07
xG 0.15–0.27 (36%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Grant – Carrick – Steel8:15
xG 0.19–0.39 (33%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Deslauriers – Milano – Zegras10:21
xG 0.48–0.91 (35%)attempts 10–15goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestLindholm – Drysdale16:10
xG 0.94–0.51 (65%)attempts 18–20goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Fowler2:06
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Mahura11:35
xG 0.85–0.95 (47%)attempts 13–18goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).