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Ice Lab

Sat, Nov 20, 2021·Centre Bell, Montreal

Nashville Predators 3, Montréal Canadiens 6

Away

Nashville Predators

3

Final

Home

Montréal Canadiens

6

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 60% of the time.

MTL winsNSH wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
NSH015011310336
MTL1941416629

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 2:41MTLArtturi LehkonenAssists: David Savard, Jake Evans · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–1
  2. P2 1:06MTLChristian DvorakAssists: Josh Anderson, Jonathan Drouin · Snap, 0.23 xG0–2
  3. P2 3:32MTLBrendan GallagherPPAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Tyler Toffoli · Tip-in, 0.19 xG0–3
  4. P2 9:31MTLRyan PoehlingGWGAssists: Chris Wideman, Artturi Lehkonen · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–4
  5. P2 10:08MTLRyan PoehlingAssists: Tyler Toffoli, Chris Wideman · Slap, 0.09 xG0–5
  6. P3 6:36NSHMatt DuchenePPAssists: Roman Josi, Ryan Johansen · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–5
  7. P3 12:53NSHMatt DuchenePPAssists: Mikael Granlund, Eeli Tolvanen · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–5
  8. P3 16:27NSHMatt DucheneAssists: Ryan Johansen, Mikael Granlund · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–5
  9. P3 18:30MTLTyler ToffoliENAssists: Joel Armia · Wrist, 0.70 xG3–6
Penalties (11)
  1. P2 3:23NSHMathieu Olivier: Tripping2 min · PPG
  2. P2 12:52NSHRyan Johansen: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  3. P2 18:56NSHMark Borowiecki: Roughing2 min
  4. P2 18:56MTLChristian Dvorak: Roughing2 min
  5. P2 18:56NSHMathieu Olivier: Fighting5 min
  6. P2 18:56MTLJosh Anderson: Fighting5 min
  7. P2 18:56NSHMark Borowiecki: Misconduct10 min
  8. P2 18:56MTLChristian Dvorak: Misconduct10 min
  9. P3 6:07MTLTyler Toffoli: Hooking2 min · PPG
  10. P3 12:45MTLArtturi Lehkonen: Holding2 min · PPG
  11. P3 13:14MTLBen Chiarot: Roughing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NSH00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0MTL
48% to win52% to win
← NSH attackMTL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Evans won the faceoff against Sissons
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NSHMTL
36Shots on goal29
3.2Expected goals3.7
62Shot attempts57
29Faceoffs won39
3Power plays2
21Penalty minutes23
37Hits22
12Blocked shots11
9Giveaways12
2Takeaways1

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.

Nashville Predators

Forward lines

  1. bestJohansen – Cousins – Tolvanen5:18

    xG 0.46–0.09 (84%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0

  2. Johansen – Tolvanen – Tomasino6:02

    xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0

  3. Cousins – McCarron – Olivier4:09

    xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0

  4. Duchene – Granlund – Kunin12:24

    xG 0.97–1.00 (49%)attempts 16–15goals 0–2

Defence pairs

  1. bestEkholm – Carrier14:41

    xG 1.23–0.73 (63%)attempts 19–17goals 0–0

  2. Borowiecki – Benning7:45

    xG 0.34–0.12 (75%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0

  3. Ekholm – Benning2:54

    xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0

Montréal Canadiens

Forward lines

  1. bestGallagher – Lehkonen – Evans11:49

    xG 0.95–0.44 (68%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0

  2. Armia – Anderson – Poehling2:26

    xG 0.06–0.05 (53%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0

  3. Armia – Drouin – Poehling2:12

    xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0

  4. Toffoli – Armia – Poehling2:23

    xG 0.09–0.11 (43%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestKulak – Romanov7:16

    xG 0.38–0.18 (67%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0

  2. Savard – Kulak2:56

    xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0

  3. Wideman – Romanov3:58

    xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 1–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

MTL 3.7 xGNSH 3.2 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

MTLNSH

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.

Excitement 84/100 · #253 of 1312 this seasonSwing 0.52 · 7 goals in reach · 3-goal lead cutComeback index 52% (winner's lowest chance)
NSH 100%5050%50MTL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +22 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 60% of the time.

MTL winsNSH wins

Simulated goal difference (MTL − NSH), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).