Sat, Nov 20, 2021·Amalie Arena, Tampa
New Jersey Devils 5, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 14 | 015 | 48 | 527 |
| TBL | 29 | 113 | 012 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:49TBLJan RuttaUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 13:56NJDYegor SharangovichAssists: Alexander Holtz · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P1 18:15TBLPatrick MaroonPPAssists: Ross Colton, Mikhail Sergachev · Backhand, 0.30 xG1–2
- P2 6:17TBLVictor HedmanAssists: Boris Katchouk, Jan Rutta · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–3
- P3 1:12NJDDawson MercerAssists: Yegor Sharangovich, Jonas Siegenthaler · Wrap-around, 0.06 xG2–3
- P3 5:39NJDJimmy VeseyAssists: P.K. Subban, Jonas Siegenthaler · Backhand, 0.12 xG3–3
- P3 9:34NJDYegor SharangovichGWGAssists: Jesper Bratt, Nico Hischier · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–3
- P3 18:44NJDTomas TatarENAssists: Ryan Graves · Backhand, 0.78 xG5–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:10NJDP.K. Subban: Interference2 min
- P1 8:47NJDPavel Zacha: Interference2 min
- P1 9:10TBLAlex Killorn: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 17:31NJDDamon Severson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 7:36TBLCorey Perry: Illegal check to head2 min
- P2 11:19TBLAlex Killorn: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:06NJDRyan Graves: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
- P3 15:02NJDDougie Hamilton: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Colton won the faceoff against Mercer
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestKuokkanen – Sharangovich – Holtz4:28
xG 0.42–0.08 (84%)attempts 5–2goals 1–1
- Vesey – McLeod – Kuokkanen4:36
xG 0.34–0.29 (55%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Johnsson – Zacha – Hischier2:02
xG 0.03–0.04 (40%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Johnsson – Bratt – Mercer7:13
xG 0.19–0.24 (43%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamilton – Graves15:09
xG 0.63–0.56 (53%)attempts 12–9goals 2–0
- Subban – Siegenthaler12:55
xG 0.36–0.52 (41%)attempts 10–10goals 2–2
- Severson – Smith10:55
xG 0.54–0.88 (38%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestPerry – Maroon – Bellemare8:15
xG 0.59–0.07 (89%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Palat – Point – Cirelli14:03
xG 0.58–0.38 (60%)attempts 13–9goals 1–2
- Killorn – Stamkos – Joseph6:59
xG 0.36–0.23 (61%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
- Bellemare – Katchouk – Raddysh2:18
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Sergachev12:08
xG 0.97–0.49 (66%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
- Hedman – Sergachev2:14
xG 0.09–0.02 (84%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Bogosian – Claesson10:56
xG 0.41–0.59 (41%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).