Sat, Nov 20, 2021·FLA Live Arena, Sunrise
Minnesota Wild 4, Florida Panthers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 05 | 116 | 318 | 439 |
| FLA | 115 | 212 | 210 | 537 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:45FLAOwen TippettAssists: Aaron Ekblad, Frank Vatrano · Backhand, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 8:23FLAFrank VatranoAssists: Joe Thornton, Radko Gudas · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 11:46MINJoel Eriksson EkPPAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Kirill Kaprizov · Snap, 0.36 xG1–2
- P2 14:50FLAFrank VatranoAssists: Gustav Forsling · Snap, 0.40 xG1–3
- P3 1:55MINKirill KaprizovAssists: Frederick Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–3
- P3 5:42FLACarter VerhaegheAssists: MacKenzie Weegar, Aaron Ekblad · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–4
- P3 19:14MINMarcus FolignoAssists: Alex Goligoski, Victor Rask · Snap, 0.50 xG3–4
- P3 19:23FLASam BennettENGWGAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau · Wrist, 0.66 xG3–5
- P3 19:51MINRyan HartmanAssists: Joel Eriksson Ek · Wrist, 0.25 xG4–5
Penalties (3)
- P1 7:06MINJordan Greenway: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 11:27FLABrandon Montour: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 7:40FLABrandon Montour: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eriksson Ek won the faceoff against Luostarinen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestZuccarello – Hartman – Fiala10:16
xG 0.88–0.33 (73%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Hartman – Kaprizov2:06
xG 0.24–0.17 (58%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Pitlick – Duhaime – Sturm7:02
xG 0.39–0.39 (50%)attempts 8–11goals 0–2
- Rask – Gaudreau – Kaprizov10:11
xG 0.29–0.45 (39%)attempts 5–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMerrill – Brodin4:31
xG 0.33–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Kulikov6:09
xG 0.39–0.22 (64%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Spurgeon2:34
xG 0.10–0.06 (60%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Vatrano – Tippett6:58
xG 0.85–0.48 (64%)attempts 12–8goals 3–0
- Verhaeghe – Reinhart – Lundell10:15
xG 0.60–0.53 (53%)attempts 10–9goals 1–1
- Hornqvist – Lomberg – Luostarinen8:19
xG 0.22–0.19 (53%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Huberdeau – Duclair – Bennett11:22
xG 0.82–0.82 (50%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – Montour2:07
xG 0.36–0.06 (85%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Gudas – Forsling16:36
xG 1.00–0.81 (55%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Montour – Forsling2:16
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).