Sat, Nov 20, 2021·UBS Arena, Elmont
Calgary Flames 5, New York Islanders 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 29 | 115 | 27 | 531 |
| NYI | 113 | 09 | 114 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:05CGYBrad RichardsonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–0
- P1 13:18CGYAndrew MangiapanePPAssists: Noah Hanifin, Johnny Gaudreau · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–0
- P1 19:37NYIBrock NelsonPPAssists: Richard Panik, Kyle Palmieri · Snap, 0.83 xG2–1
- P2 6:43CGYAndrew MangiapanePPGWGAssists: Noah Hanifin, Mikael Backlund · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–1
- P3 1:49NYIBrock NelsonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.30 xG3–2
- P3 18:45CGYTrevor LewisENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.52 xG4–2
- P3 19:22CGYJohnny GaudreauENAssists: Elias Lindholm, Noah Hanifin · Wrist, 0.68 xG5–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 1:23CGYJohnny Gaudreau: Slashing2 min
- P1 4:42NYIKieffer Bellows: Interference2 min
- P1 9:31CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Slashing2 min
- P1 11:56NYIKieffer Bellows: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P1 14:14CGYBrad Richardson: Holding2 min
- P1 19:31CGYChris Tanev: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 2:11CGYSean Monahan: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:55NYIZdeno Chara: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 7:07CGYBlake Coleman: Boarding2 min
- P2 11:47NYIKyle Palmieri: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Cizikas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestRichardson – Lewis – Lucic7:09
xG 0.36–0.15 (71%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Mangiapane9:04
xG 0.54–0.42 (57%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Pitlick – Monahan – Dube8:32
xG 0.34–0.82 (29%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Gaudreau – Lindholm – Tkachuk9:31
xG 0.19–0.67 (22%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHanifin – Andersson13:31
xG 0.96–0.52 (65%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Tanev – Kylington11:33
xG 0.44–0.69 (39%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Gudbranson – Zadorov10:57
xG 0.11–1.37 (7%)attempts 3–11goals 0–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestNelson – Bellows – Wahlstrom7:03
xG 0.87–0.14 (86%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Parise – Panik – Barzal5:45
xG 0.71–0.25 (74%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Palmieri – Andreoff – Pageau7:19
xG 0.19–0.04 (83%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Panik – Nelson – Barzal2:25
xG 0.12–0.03 (79%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMayfield – Salo10:04
xG 0.68–0.30 (70%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
- Aho – Hutton6:26
xG 0.49–0.15 (77%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Salo – Dobson3:10
xG 0.03–0.03 (46%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).