Sat, Nov 20, 2021·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Boston Bruins 5, Philadelphia Flyers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 121 | 213 | 210 | 544 |
| PHI | 08 | 211 | 012 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:25BOSTomas NosekAssists: Anton Blidh, Curtis Lazar · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 0:30BOSDerek ForbortAssists: Brad Marchand, David Pastrnak · Slap, 0.01 xG2–0
- P2 1:22PHIDerick BrassardAssists: Cam Atkinson, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.28 xG2–1
- P2 9:25PHIDerick BrassardPPAssists: Claude Giroux, Ivan Provorov · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–2
- P2 16:27BOSDerek ForbortGWGAssists: Craig Smith, Jake DeBrusk · Snap, 0.08 xG3–2
- P3 1:28BOSCraig SmithAssists: Erik Haula, Jake DeBrusk · Snap, 0.09 xG4–2
- P3 12:47BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Jakub Zboril, Charlie Coyle · Snap, 0.19 xG5–2
Penalties (12)
- P1 4:36BOSTaylor Hall: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:19PHIClaude Giroux: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:07PHIJustin Braun: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:42BOSDerek Forbort: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:30BOSBrad Marchand: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
- P2 10:32BOSCharlie McAvoy: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:32PHIJoel Farabee: Fighting5 min
- P3 4:11PHIOskar Lindblom: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:29BOSPatrice Bergeron: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:54BOSBrandon Carlo: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:54PHIZack MacEwen: Delaying game bench face off violation2 min
- P3 14:20BOSDerek Forbort: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Haula – DeBrusk9:47
xG 0.71–0.33 (68%)attempts 16–10goals 2–0
- Blidh – Lazar – Nosek6:31
xG 0.29–0.08 (78%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Foligno – Coyle – Hall11:06
xG 0.72–0.59 (55%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
- Bergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak9:20
xG 0.14–0.20 (42%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestReilly – Zboril7:15
xG 0.49–0.06 (90%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0
- Grzelcyk – Carlo12:50
xG 0.76–0.62 (55%)attempts 9–14goals 0–1
- Forbort – Zboril3:18
xG 0.09–0.01 (89%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Couturier – Farabee9:23
xG 0.29–0.05 (84%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
- Thompson – Willman – MacEwen8:24
xG 0.17–0.14 (55%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Giroux – Brassard – Atkinson8:47
xG 0.52–0.72 (42%)attempts 10–9goals 1–1
- Laughton – Lindblom – Konecny8:17
xG 0.08–0.45 (15%)attempts 4–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestBraun – Seeler2:15
xG 0.12–0.05 (68%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Ristolainen – Sanheim15:42
xG 0.64–0.69 (48%)attempts 14–11goals 1–1
- Yandle – Seeler9:01
xG 0.17–0.25 (40%)attempts 6–6goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).