Sat, Nov 20, 2021·American Airlines Center, Dallas
St. Louis Blues 1, Dallas Stars 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 011 | 112 | 013 | 136 |
| DAL | 013 | 216 | 24 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:16DALRyan SuterPPAssists: Denis Gurianov, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P2 10:39DALRoope HintzSHGWGAssists: Michael Raffl, Esa Lindell · Snap, 0.20 xG0–2
- P2 12:19STLBrandon SaadPPAssists: David Perron, Torey Krug · Wrist, 0.35 xG1–2
- P3 3:55DALRoope HintzSHAssists: Michael Raffl · Snap, 0.32 xG1–3
- P3 18:31DALJamie BennENAssists: Joe Pavelski, Esa Lindell · Backhand, 0.69 xG1–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 9:03STLTorey Krug: Holding2 min
- P1 16:00DALJacob Peterson: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:15STLOskar Sundqvist: Holding2 min
- P2 1:47STLColton Parayko: Penalty shot holding on breakaway0 min
- P2 5:11STLVladimir Tarasenko: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 6:19DALRoope Hintz: Cross checking2 min
- P2 9:19DALJason Robertson: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:12DALRadek Faksa: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 16:38STLTorey Krug: Interference2 min
- P3 1:05DALJamie Benn: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:14DALJamie Benn: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Faksa won the faceoff against Barbashev
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestTarasenko – Buchnevich – Thomas8:36
xG 0.68–0.15 (82%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Perron – O'Reilly – Kyrou8:35
xG 0.35–0.02 (94%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Neal – Bozak – Kostin3:30
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Saad – Sundqvist – Barbashev8:02
xG 0.01–0.63 (2%)attempts 1–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKrug – Parayko12:52
xG 0.77–0.58 (57%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Bortuzzo – Scandella9:07
xG 0.35–0.18 (66%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Faulk – Parayko2:57
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSeguin – Glendening – Kiviranta6:28
xG 0.46–0.20 (69%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Hintz – Robertson9:12
xG 0.26–0.20 (57%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Benn – Raffl – Gurianov6:17
xG 0.07–0.15 (33%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Radulov – Faksa – Peterson6:47
xG 0.06–0.16 (26%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlingberg – Lindell2:29
xG 0.37–0.05 (88%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Hakanpää – Hanley7:57
xG 0.17–0.01 (92%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Suter – Klingberg12:41
xG 0.67–0.57 (54%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).