Sat, Nov 20, 2021·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Carolina Hurricanes 5, Los Angeles Kings 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 27 | 311 | 02 | 520 |
| LAK | 213 | 210 | 020 | 443 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:00CARSeth JarvisAssists: Sebastian Aho, Tony DeAngelo · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 4:38LAKBlake LizotteAssists: Brendan Lemieux, Alexander Edler · Snap, 0.12 xG1–1
- P1 4:48CARDerek StepanAssists: Jordan Martinook, Brady Skjei · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–1
- P1 12:39LAKAdrian KempeAssists: Alexander Edler, Anze Kopitar · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–2
- P2 6:16CARSebastian AhoAssists: Andrei Svechnikov, Frederik Andersen · Tip-in, 0.03 xG3–2
- P2 9:33LAKAdrian KempeSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.32 xG3–3
- P2 11:20CARJesperi KotkaniemiAssists: Derek Stepan, Jaccob Slavin · Backhand, 0.09 xG4–3
- P2 18:00LAKBrendan LemieuxAssists: Matt Roy · Wrist, 0.23 xG4–4
- P2 19:26CARMartin NecasGWGAssists: Nino Niederreiter, Jordan Staal · Wrist, 0.19 xG5–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 13:47CARAndrei Svechnikov: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:44LAKArthur Kaliyev: Interference2 min
- P1 19:40CARJordan Martinook: Holding2 min
- P2 8:58LAKAlex Iafallo: Holding2 min
- P2 12:13CARAndrei Svechnikov: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:51CAREthan Bear: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kupari won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Niederreiter – Necas7:28
xG 0.14–0.06 (70%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Stepan – Martinook – Kotkaniemi7:10
xG 0.21–0.26 (45%)attempts 4–10goals 2–1
- Fast – Trocheck – Teravainen5:46
xG 0.14–0.23 (38%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Staal – Niederreiter – Fast4:58
xG 0.01–0.16 (7%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSlavin – DeAngelo5:24
xG 0.59–0.06 (91%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Skjei – Pesce15:03
xG 0.63–0.42 (60%)attempts 11–14goals 2–1
- Cole – Bear4:03
xG 0.07–0.23 (22%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestLemieux – Lizotte – Kaliyev9:53
xG 0.93–0.16 (85%)attempts 19–4goals 2–1
- Kopitar – Kempe – Arvidsson11:22
xG 0.70–0.39 (64%)attempts 12–5goals 1–2
- Brown – Moore – Kupari7:25
xG 0.09–0.11 (45%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
- Danault – Athanasiou – Iafallo10:39
xG 0.37–0.50 (43%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdler – Roy15:37
xG 0.75–0.40 (65%)attempts 19–6goals 2–1
- Clague – Bjornfot3:20
xG 0.28–0.01 (96%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Maatta – Anderson6:18
xG 0.26–0.01 (96%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).