Sun, Nov 21, 2021·TD Garden, Boston
Calgary Flames 4, Boston Bruins 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 19 | 111 | 212 | 432 |
| BOS | 07 | 011 | 010 | 028 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:29CGYJohnny GaudreauGWGAssists: Juuso Välimäki, Matthew Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P2 13:51CGYNoah HanifinAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Rasmus Andersson · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–0
- P3 3:08CGYAndrew MangiapaneSHAssists: Dillon Dube · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–0
- P3 4:11CGYMikael BacklundAssists: Elias Lindholm · Wrist, 0.20 xG4–0
Penalties (5)
- P1 6:27CGYRasmus Andersson: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:44CGYNoah Hanifin: High sticking2 min
- P3 2:09CGYJuuso Välimäki: Holding2 min
- P3 7:48BOSBrad Marchand: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:56BOSNick Foligno: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nosek won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Lindholm – Tkachuk11:26
xG 0.85–0.15 (85%)attempts 16–7goals 2–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Mangiapane9:17
xG 0.16–0.04 (79%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Pitlick – Monahan – Dube7:18
xG 0.31–0.23 (57%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Richardson – Lewis – Lucic12:13
xG 0.12–0.65 (15%)attempts 11–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHanifin – Andersson14:35
xG 0.87–0.24 (79%)attempts 14–14goals 1–0
- Gudbranson – Välimäki13:37
xG 0.41–0.58 (42%)attempts 13–17goals 1–0
- Tanev – Kylington17:31
xG 0.21–0.43 (33%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Haula – DeBrusk10:36
xG 0.42–0.28 (60%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Foligno – Coyle – Hall11:23
xG 0.30–0.21 (59%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Blidh – Lazar – Nosek10:29
xG 0.17–0.32 (34%)attempts 7–13goals 0–1
- Bergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak10:14
xG 0.31–0.55 (36%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestReilly – Zboril13:22
xG 0.53–0.23 (69%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
- Grzelcyk – Zboril3:19
xG 0.20–0.03 (86%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Forbort – Carlo3:17
xG 0.03–0.01 (75%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).