Sun, Nov 21, 2021·UBS Arena, Elmont
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, New York Islanders 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 112 | 013 | 215 | 340 |
| NYI | 06 | 07 | 07 | 020 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:31TORMitch MarnerSHGWGAssists: Jake Muzzin · Backhand, 0.00 xG1–0
- P3 2:00TOROndrej KaseAssists: David Kampf, Nick Ritchie · Snap, 0.26 xG2–0
- P3 13:29TORMitch MarnerAssists: Michael Bunting · Tip-in, 0.17 xG3–0
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:18TORWayne Simmonds: Slashing2 min
- P1 2:18NYICal Clutterbuck: Holding2 min
- P1 2:41TORTimothy Liljegren: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:53NYIScott Mayfield: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:04NYIKyle Palmieri: Holding2 min
- P2 15:40TORJason Spezza: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:08NYIZach Parise: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:00TORWilliam Nylander: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Nelson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestBunting – Marner – Matthews9:54
xG 1.13–0.19 (86%)attempts 16–3goals 1–0
- Spezza – Simmonds – Engvall7:20
xG 1.05–0.35 (75%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Ritchie – Kase – Kampf6:54
xG 0.73–0.15 (83%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Tavares – Kerfoot – Nylander11:42
xG 0.39–0.87 (31%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLiljegren – Sandin12:25
xG 1.64–0.46 (78%)attempts 20–10goals 1–0
- Muzzin – Holl15:46
xG 1.17–0.72 (62%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Brodie – Rielly16:35
xG 0.69–0.77 (47%)attempts 13–16goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestNelson – Beauvillier – Wahlstrom3:51
xG 0.32–0.03 (91%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Andreoff – Pageau – Wahlstrom2:16
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas9:53
xG 0.60–0.58 (50%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Parise – Pageau – Beauvillier3:57
xG 0.40–0.43 (48%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Chara – Hutton2:05
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Mayfield – Salo15:25
xG 0.82–1.14 (42%)attempts 11–14goals 0–1
- Aho – Hutton9:36
xG 0.35–0.90 (28%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).