Mon, Nov 22, 2021·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Columbus Blue Jackets 7, Buffalo Sabres 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 210 | 312 | 27 | 729 |
| BUF | 212 | 26 | 015 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:38BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Victor Olofsson, Henri Jokiharju · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 8:23CBJJack RoslovicAssists: Zach Werenski, Gregory Hofmann · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 14:04CBJJack RoslovicAssists: Max Domi, Gavin Bayreuther · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–1
- P1 19:59BUFZemgus GirgensonsPPAssists: Colin Miller, Rasmus Dahlin · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–2
- P2 0:24CBJOliver BjorkstrandAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Boone Jenner · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–2
- P2 0:55CBJMax DomiAssists: Gregory Hofmann, Jack Roslovic · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–2
- P2 3:41CBJVladislav GavrikovGWGAssists: Andrew Peeke, Max Domi · Tip-in, 0.01 xG5–2
- P2 4:44BUFDylan CozensAssists: Jeff Skinner, Colin Miller · Wrist, 0.09 xG5–3
- P2 9:55BUFTage ThompsonPPAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Dylan Cozens · Slap, 0.06 xG5–4
- P3 19:15CBJVladislav GavrikovENAssists: Boone Jenner · Wrist, 0.43 xG6–4
- P3 19:50CBJSean KuralyENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.53 xG7–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 10:01BUFHenri Jokiharju: Boarding2 min
- P1 19:51CBJAndrew Peeke: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 1:15BUFRobert Hagg: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:05CBJAndrew Peeke: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:05BUFMark Pysyk: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:50CBJAlexandre Texier: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 11:37BUFVinnie Hinostroza: High sticking2 min
- P3 10:40CBJEgor Chinakhov: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:09CBJGustav Nyquist: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against Jenner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestKuraly – Texier – Robinson11:05
xG 0.58–0.04 (93%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Hofmann – Domi – Roslovic10:31
xG 0.61–0.39 (61%)attempts 9–11goals 3–0
- Voracek – Chinakhov – Sillinger7:16
xG 0.08–0.02 (78%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Nyquist – Jenner – Bjorkstrand11:09
xG 0.22–0.79 (22%)attempts 9–14goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestGavrikov – Peeke15:50
xG 0.67–0.47 (59%)attempts 13–16goals 2–1
- Werenski – Bean19:01
xG 0.79–0.90 (47%)attempts 25–16goals 2–0
- Bayreuther – Boqvist8:35
xG 0.14–0.37 (27%)attempts 6–10goals 1–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – Girgensons – Asplund8:28
xG 0.61–0.26 (70%)attempts 13–4goals 0–1
- Skinner – Olofsson – Thompson11:26
xG 0.63–0.38 (63%)attempts 11–9goals 1–1
- Hinostroza – Caggiula – Cozens8:10
xG 0.32–0.11 (74%)attempts 11–4goals 0–1
- Eakin – Hayden – Bjork7:27
xG 0.16–0.33 (32%)attempts 5–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPysyk – Dahlin14:01
xG 0.88–0.39 (69%)attempts 15–11goals 0–2
- Jokiharju – Bryson9:13
xG 0.32–0.22 (59%)attempts 12–5goals 1–1
- Miller – Bryson2:10
xG 0.09–0.03 (73%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).