Mon, Nov 22, 2021·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Anaheim Ducks 2, Nashville Predators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 09 | 17 | 115 | 231 |
| NSH | 110 | 114 | 111 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:34NSHRyan JohansenAssists: Yakov Trenin, Tanner Jeannot · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 5:47ANARickard RakellAssists: Trevor Zegras, Sonny Milano · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 15:20NSHMikael GranlundPPAssists: Ryan Johansen · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P3 3:47ANAJamie DrysdaleUnassisted · Deflected, 0.01 xG2–2
- P3 12:10NSHYakov TreninGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:50ANACam Fowler: High sticking2 min
- P1 9:49ANAJosh Mahura: Interference2 min
- P2 0:31NSHTanner Jeannot: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:44ANATrevor Zegras: Cross checking2 min
- P2 13:28ANATrevor Zegras: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 15:13NSHRoman Josi: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Getzlaf won the faceoff against Sissons
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Henrique – Terry5:21
xG 0.35–0.04 (90%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Rakell – Milano – Zegras8:38
xG 0.33–0.06 (86%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Silfverberg – Deslauriers – Lundeström7:45
xG 0.21–0.20 (51%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
- Grant – Carrick – Steel6:29
xG 0.12–0.12 (49%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFowler – Manson16:41
xG 0.65–0.32 (67%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Drysdale15:01
xG 0.51–0.39 (57%)attempts 11–16goals 2–0
- Shattenkirk – Mahura11:38
xG 0.37–0.25 (60%)attempts 9–7goals 0–2
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- Cousins – McCarron – Novak6:21
xG 0.11–0.11 (52%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Cousins – Novak – Tomasino2:54
xG 0.08–0.08 (51%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Duchene – Johansen – Tolvanen2:49
xG 0.10–0.16 (39%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Sissons – Trenin – Jeannot9:12
xG 0.20–0.27 (43%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Borowiecki – Benning11:26
xG 0.25–0.20 (55%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Josi – Fabbro16:35
xG 0.61–0.61 (50%)attempts 17–15goals 1–2
- Ekholm – Carrier15:06
xG 0.22–0.83 (21%)attempts 8–20goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).