Tue, Nov 23, 2021·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Edmonton Oilers 1, Dallas Stars 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 06 | 19 | 07 | 122 |
| DAL | 212 | 19 | 112 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:59DALRoope HintzPPAssists: Alexander Radulov, John Klingberg · Deflected, 0.21 xG0–1
- P1 15:59DALJason RobertsonPPGWGAssists: Roope Hintz, John Klingberg · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 9:27DALDenis GurianovAssists: John Klingberg, Miro Heiskanen · Backhand, 0.15 xG0–3
- P2 10:35EDMRyan McLeodAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Jesse Puljujarvi · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–3
- P3 8:19DALLuke GlendeningAssists: Ryan Suter, Joel Kiviranta · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 10:00EDMDuncan Keith: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 15:12EDMRyan McLeod: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 7:23EDMPhilip Broberg: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:24EDMLeon Draisaitl: Cross checking2 min
- P2 14:59DALRoope Hintz: Interference2 min
- P2 19:44EDMLeon Draisaitl: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:40DALJason Robertson: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Pavelski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestSceviour – Ryan – Yamamoto3:09
xG 0.15–0.01 (91%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Hyman – Perlini – McDavid3:16
xG 0.05–0.01 (78%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Draisaitl – McDavid – Puljujarvi2:06
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Hyman – McDavid – Puljujarvi6:21
xG 0.34–0.35 (49%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBarrie – Ceci3:20
xG 0.15–0.02 (86%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Ceci – Broberg17:29
xG 0.27–0.19 (58%)attempts 16–9goals 0–1
- Russell – Barrie10:48
xG 0.17–0.12 (59%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRadulov – Seguin – Peterson7:28
xG 0.28–0.05 (84%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Benn – Raffl – Gurianov8:52
xG 0.20–0.15 (56%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Hintz – Robertson8:49
xG 0.24–0.22 (52%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Glendening – Faksa – Kiviranta6:50
xG 0.11–0.13 (45%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLindell – Heiskanen17:55
xG 0.57–0.37 (61%)attempts 16–16goals 0–0
- Suter – Klingberg17:51
xG 0.42–0.38 (53%)attempts 16–16goals 1–0
- Sekera – Hakanpää8:54
xG 0.15–0.17 (46%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).