Wed, Nov 24, 2021·Prudential Center, Newark
Minnesota Wild 3, New Jersey Devils 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 213 | 06 | 07 | 01 | 1 | 327 |
| NJD | 018 | 07 | 213 | 04 | 0 | 242 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:10MINRyan HartmanAssists: Dmitry Kulikov, Mats Zuccarello · Snap, 0.19 xG1–0
- P1 19:06MINNico SturmSHAssists: Frederick Gaudreau, Jonas Brodin · Snap, 0.11 xG2–0
- P3 3:08NJDPavel ZachaAssists: Nico Hischier, Tomas Tatar · Snap, 0.08 xG2–1
- P3 18:53NJDYegor SharangovichAssists: Nico Hischier, Jesper Bratt · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. NJD Dougie Hamilton stopped
- 2. MIN Mats Zuccarello stopped
- 3. NJD Jesper Bratt stopped
- 4. MIN Kevin Fiala scored
- 5. NJD Yegor Sharangovich stopped
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:08NJDRyan Graves: Slashing2 min
- P1 5:30MINRyan Hartman: Tripping2 min
- P1 6:43NJDDougie Hamilton: Interference2 min
- P1 17:38MINMathew Dumba: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:33NJDNico Hischier: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:46MINRyan Hartman: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:38MINMathew Dumba: Cross checking2 min
- P3 14:53MINJoel Eriksson Ek: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:53NJDNico Hischier: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hischier won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- Bjugstad – Duhaime – Sturm7:17
xG 0.33–0.29 (54%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Foligno – Greenway – Eriksson Ek9:36
xG 0.22–0.31 (42%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Hartman – Kaprizov10:13
xG 0.34–0.56 (38%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Gaudreau – Fiala – Pitlick9:04
xG 0.20–0.89 (19%)attempts 8–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Kulikov – Brodin2:02
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Brodin – Dumba17:34
xG 0.74–0.93 (44%)attempts 14–18goals 0–0
- Benn – Kulikov11:59
xG 0.33–0.74 (30%)attempts 7–14goals 1–1
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestJohnsson – Bratt – Mercer10:05
xG 1.00–0.19 (84%)attempts 17–7goals 0–0
- De Leo – McLeod – Zetterlund4:32
xG 0.34–0.09 (80%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Tatar – Zacha – Hischier10:33
xG 0.48–0.30 (61%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Vesey – Kuokkanen – Sharangovich5:02
xG 0.44–0.27 (62%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSubban – Siegenthaler13:03
xG 0.77–0.33 (70%)attempts 19–9goals 1–0
- Hamilton – Graves14:14
xG 0.89–0.49 (64%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
- Severson – White10:43
xG 0.60–0.49 (55%)attempts 15–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).