Wed, Nov 24, 2021·Capital One Arena, Washington
Montréal Canadiens 3, Washington Capitals 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 15 | 110 | 113 | 328 |
| WSH | 316 | 110 | 28 | 634 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:34WSHNic DowdAssists: Dmitry Orlov, Nick Jensen · Backhand, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 9:43WSHJohn CarlsonPPAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Alex Ovechkin · Slap, 0.04 xG0–2
- P1 14:31WSHMichael SgarbossaUnassisted · Deflected, 0.15 xG0–3
- P1 18:46MTLJake EvansAssists: Artturi Lehkonen · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–3
- P2 9:05WSHEvgeny KuznetsovGWGAssists: John Carlson, Alex Ovechkin · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–4
- P2 18:54MTLCole CaufieldAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Nick Suzuki · Wrist, 0.58 xG2–4
- P3 1:49WSHTom WilsonAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Connor McMichael · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–5
- P3 5:57WSHDmitry OrlovAssists: Nic Dowd · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–6
- P3 17:34MTLArtturi LehkonenAssists: Brendan Gallagher, Jake Evans · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–6
Penalties (4)
- P1 1:18WSHDmitry Orlov: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 8:35MTLJeff Petry: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 6:24WSHGarnet Hathaway: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:25WSHJohn Carlson: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kuznetsov won the faceoff against Evans
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGallagher – Lehkonen – Evans11:48
xG 0.83–0.56 (60%)attempts 13–13goals 2–1
- Toffoli – Suzuki – Caufield12:02
xG 0.24–0.39 (37%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Armia – Paquette – Poehling8:13
xG 0.05–0.50 (9%)attempts 3–14goals 0–1
- Anderson – Drouin – Dvorak14:19
xG 0.04–0.72 (6%)attempts 5–19goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Chiarot16:25
xG 0.95–0.82 (54%)attempts 12–23goals 2–1
- Wideman – Niku12:38
xG 0.45–0.45 (50%)attempts 13–12goals 0–2
- Savard – Romanov18:05
xG 0.77–1.02 (43%)attempts 13–22goals 1–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestSgarbossa – Malenstyn – Leason7:58
xG 0.31–0.03 (90%)attempts 12–2goals 1–0
- Wilson – Sprong – McMichael9:19
xG 0.53–0.28 (65%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
- Hagelin – Dowd – Hathaway10:59
xG 0.65–0.70 (48%)attempts 19–8goals 1–1
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Protas16:06
xG 0.69–0.91 (43%)attempts 12–15goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Jensen11:25
xG 0.73–0.17 (81%)attempts 15–7goals 2–0
- Schultz – van Riemsdyk4:40
xG 0.31–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Jensen – Fehérváry3:46
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 11–0goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).