Wed, Nov 24, 2021·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Vegas Golden Knights 5, Nashville Predators 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 111 | 213 | 211 | 535 |
| NSH | 09 | 010 | 29 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:12VGKChandler StephensonAssists: Mark Stone · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 3:01VGKJonas RondbjergUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–0
- P2 11:12VGKAdam BrooksGWGAssists: Keegan Kolesar, Mattias Janmark · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–0
- P3 5:20NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Matt Duchene · Backhand, 0.16 xG3–1
- P3 8:04VGKAlex PietrangeloSHAssists: Chandler Stephenson · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–1
- P3 13:51NSHFilip ForsbergPPAssists: Roman Josi, Ryan Johansen · Snap, 0.06 xG4–2
- P3 18:08VGKMark StoneENAssists: Max Pacioretty · Wrist, 0.67 xG5–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 15:25NSHNick Cousins: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:49VGKMax Pacioretty: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:09VGKMark Stone: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:02VGKZach Whitecloud: Cross checking2 min
- P2 18:20NSHMatt Benning: Slashing2 min
- P3 1:35VGKJonas Rondbjerg: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:26VGKNicolas Roy: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:45VGKShea Theodore: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stephenson won the faceoff against Sissons
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestPacioretty – Stone – Stephenson11:41
xG 0.74–0.32 (70%)attempts 12–11goals 1–1
- Carrier – Leschyshyn – Rondbjerg8:25
xG 0.34–0.17 (67%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Dadonov – Smith – Roy9:19
xG 0.39–0.33 (54%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Janmark – Kolesar – Brooks6:56
xG 0.41–0.49 (45%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Theodore14:11
xG 1.08–0.59 (65%)attempts 15–17goals 0–0
- Hutton – Whitecloud11:48
xG 0.67–0.42 (62%)attempts 11–11goals 2–0
- Pietrangelo – Hague12:04
xG 0.12–0.50 (19%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestDuchene – Granlund – Forsberg5:26
xG 0.42–0.05 (90%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Johansen – Tolvanen – Tomasino2:38
xG 0.14–0.07 (65%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Sissons – Trenin – Jeannot10:46
xG 0.42–0.37 (53%)attempts 9–8goals 0–2
- Duchene – Granlund – Kunin7:04
xG 0.14–0.09 (60%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBorowiecki – Benning11:51
xG 0.67–0.60 (53%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
- Josi – Fabbro14:26
xG 0.36–0.58 (38%)attempts 14–12goals 1–1
- Ekholm – Carrier14:17
xG 0.37–0.92 (28%)attempts 16–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).