Wed, Nov 24, 2021·Ball Arena, Denver
Anaheim Ducks 2, Colorado Avalanche 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 18 | 05 | 113 | 226 |
| COL | 111 | 217 | 28 | 536 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:58ANASonny MilanoPPAssists: Rickard Rakell, Jamie Drysdale · Wrist, 0.44 xG1–0
- P1 19:06COLCale MakarAssists: Nazem Kadri, Gabriel Landeskog · Snap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 2:49COLAlex NewhookAssists: Devon Toews, Tyson Jost · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 10:25COLNicolas Aube-KubelGWGAssists: Jayson Megna, Ryan Murray · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–3
- P3 0:57COLNazem KadriPPAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Gabriel Landeskog · Tip-in, 0.18 xG1–4
- P3 15:22COLValeri NichushkinAssists: Andre Burakovsky, Erik Johnson · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–5
- P3 16:07ANASonny MilanoPPAssists: Jamie Drysdale, Trevor Zegras · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–5
Penalties (12)
- P1 3:18ANANicolas Deslauriers: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:18COLKurtis MacDermid: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 4:42COLMikko Rantanen: Interference2 min
- P1 6:18ANAJamie Drysdale: Interference2 min
- P1 13:15ANAJamie Drysdale: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:20ANAHampus Lindholm: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:51ANAJakob Silfverberg: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:36COLAndre Burakovsky: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:34ANACam Fowler: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 19:41ANARyan Getzlaf: Slashing2 min
- P3 4:04ANAJosh Manson: Slashing2 min
- P3 15:49COLGabriel Landeskog: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lundeström won the faceoff against Newhook
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Milano – Terry3:27
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Silfverberg – Rakell – Zegras5:58
xG 0.27–0.16 (63%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
- Grant – Deslauriers – Groulx2:42
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Rakell – Milano – Zegras5:29
xG 0.13–0.10 (57%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Shattenkirk – Benoit11:49
xG 0.21–0.23 (47%)attempts 13–10goals 0–2
- Lindholm – Drysdale15:47
xG 0.17–0.56 (23%)attempts 8–18goals 0–1
- Fowler – Manson12:35
xG 0.34–0.75 (31%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Burakovsky – Nichushkin7:48
xG 0.61–0.03 (96%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Landeskog – Rantanen – O'Connor8:08
xG 0.28–0.09 (77%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Helm – Megna – Aube-Kubel3:13
xG 0.10–0.13 (44%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
- Aube-Kubel – Jost – Newhook6:35
xG 0.04–0.14 (23%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Girard3:17
xG 0.37–0.12 (76%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Toews – Makar12:19
xG 0.31–0.18 (63%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Johnson – Girard10:31
xG 0.44–0.42 (51%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).