Wed, Nov 24, 2021·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Toronto Maple Leafs 6, Los Angeles Kings 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 115 | 412 | 111 | 638 |
| LAK | 010 | 113 | 19 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:30TORAlexander KerfootAssists: Ondrej Kase, Wayne Simmonds · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 1:21LAKViktor ArvidssonPPAssists: Sean Durzi, Anze Kopitar · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 3:19TORPierre EngvallAssists: Wayne Simmonds, Rasmus Sandin · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 5:26TORJohn TavaresGWGAssists: William Nylander, TJ Brodie · Deflected, 0.09 xG3–1
- P2 13:16TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Michael Bunting, John Tavares · Backhand, 0.14 xG4–1
- P2 15:36TORJason SpezzaPPAssists: Rasmus Sandin, Pierre Engvall · Slap, 0.04 xG5–1
- P3 3:59TORMichael BuntingAssists: Rasmus Sandin, Auston Matthews · Backhand, 0.17 xG6–1
- P3 16:07LAKSean DurziPPAssists: Viktor Arvidsson, Adrian Kempe · Wrist, 0.06 xG6–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:35LAKRasmus Kupari: Tripping2 min
- P1 5:28TORWilliam Nylander: Interference2 min
- P1 7:12LAKRasmus Kupari: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:56TORAuston Matthews: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 14:08LAKMatt Roy: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 15:33TORNick Ritchie: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestBunting – Marner – Matthews12:51
xG 1.26–0.39 (76%)attempts 18–10goals 1–0
- Spezza – Simmonds – Engvall9:00
xG 0.60–0.27 (69%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Nylander – Ritchie – Kase3:13
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Tavares – Ritchie – Kase2:04
xG 0.06–0.60 (9%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLiljegren – Sandin16:02
xG 1.13–0.42 (73%)attempts 16–14goals 1–0
- Brodie – Rielly15:24
xG 1.16–0.80 (59%)attempts 20–11goals 2–0
- Muzzin – Holl16:03
xG 0.67–1.40 (32%)attempts 17–23goals 1–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestMoore – Andersson – Kupari5:55
xG 1.43–0.55 (72%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Lemieux – Iafallo – Kupari5:15
xG 0.25–0.01 (95%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Brown – Arvidsson – Lizotte4:54
xG 0.15–0.21 (42%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Lemieux – Lizotte – Kaliyev6:28
xG 0.02–0.10 (15%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEdler – Roy14:57
xG 1.79–0.80 (69%)attempts 25–14goals 0–1
- Anderson – Bjornfot19:05
xG 0.52–1.07 (33%)attempts 13–21goals 0–2
- Maatta – Durzi14:02
xG 0.25–1.04 (19%)attempts 10–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).