Wed, Nov 24, 2021·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Ottawa Senators 3, San Jose Sharks 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 112 | 213 | 04 | 329 |
| SJS | 111 | 211 | 37 | 629 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:16SJSMatt NietoAssists: Kevin Labanc, Erik Karlsson · Snap, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 13:38OTTJosh NorrisAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Lassi Thomson · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 0:47SJSTomas HertlAssists: Timo Meier, Mario Ferraro · Snap, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 14:38OTTBrady TkachukAssists: Thomas Chabot, Artem Zub · Tip-in, 0.19 xG2–2
- P2 16:11OTTConnor BrownAssists: Thomas Chabot, Tim Stützle · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–2
- P2 19:29SJSNick BoninoPPAssists: Timo Meier, Logan Couture · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–3
- P3 11:18SJSTimo MeierGWGAssists: Rudolfs Balcers, Marc-Edouard Vlasic · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–4
- P3 18:56SJSLogan CoutureENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.71 xG3–5
- P3 19:28SJSJake MiddletonENAssists: Andrew Cogliano, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.49 xG3–6
Penalties (13)
- P1 2:04OTTAustin Watson: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:04SJSJake Middleton: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:38OTTBrady Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P2 1:07SJSJake Middleton: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:12SJSAlexander Barabanov: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 13:13OTTAlex Formenton: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:59SJSNoah Gregor: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:52OTTBrady Tkachuk: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 0:31OTTBrady Tkachuk: Slashing2 min
- P3 4:16OTTAustin Watson: Boarding2 min
- P3 4:26SJSAlexander Barabanov: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:11OTTBrady Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:11SJSMatt Nieto: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Norris won the faceoff against Couture
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestSanford – Norris – Tkachuk7:55
xG 0.82–0.25 (77%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Brown – Paul – Stützle7:28
xG 0.52–0.00 (100%)attempts 12–1goals 0–0
- Watson – Gambrell – Kelly2:38
xG 0.03–0.10 (22%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
- Ennis – Tierney – Formenton6:19
xG 0.18–0.29 (39%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestChabot – Thomson12:05
xG 1.07–0.33 (76%)attempts 19–8goals 1–1
- Mete – Zaitsev7:49
xG 0.31–0.22 (59%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Holden – Zub6:40
xG 0.22–0.28 (43%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestNieto – Labanc – Weatherby2:39
xG 0.13–0.07 (65%)attempts 1–3goals 1–0
- Hertl – Labanc – Barabanov3:41
xG 0.03–0.04 (37%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Hertl – Gregor – Barabanov3:05
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Bonino – Reedy4:05
xG 0.14–0.24 (36%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Simek5:07
xG 0.18–0.09 (66%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Karlsson – Middleton9:04
xG 0.39–0.39 (50%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
- Burns – Ferraro12:02
xG 0.16–1.14 (12%)attempts 4–23goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).