Wed, Nov 24, 2021·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Carolina Hurricanes 1, Seattle Kraken 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 19 | 016 | 011 | 136 |
| SEA | 07 | 19 | 16 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:32CARBrendan SmithAssists: Tony DeAngelo · Slap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P2 4:16SEAJared McCannPPAssists: Vince Dunn, Yanni Gourde · Snap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P3 16:52SEAMarcus JohanssonGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 15:41CARVincent Trocheck: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:58CARJaccob Slavin: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 9:51SEAMorgan Geekie: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:55CARBrendan Smith: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:13SEAJoonas Donskoi: Holding2 min
- P3 10:00SEAVince Dunn: Fighting5 min
- P3 10:00CARAndrei Svechnikov: Fighting5 min
- P3 10:00CARAndrei Svechnikov: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Gourde
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestNiederreiter – Necas – Kotkaniemi8:24
xG 1.33–0.34 (80%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0
- Staal – Fast – Svechnikov7:54
xG 0.24–0.11 (69%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Martinook – Aho – Jarvis8:23
xG 0.52–0.44 (54%)attempts 18–6goals 0–0
- Trocheck – Teravainen – Lorentz8:43
xG 0.10–0.10 (49%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSkjei – Pesce13:30
xG 1.00–0.15 (87%)attempts 17–9goals 0–0
- Slavin – DeAngelo12:57
xG 0.90–0.62 (59%)attempts 16–13goals 0–1
- Smith – Pesce2:45
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Johansson – Wennberg10:16
xG 0.42–0.19 (69%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Donskoi – Blackwell – Geekie7:26
xG 0.34–0.27 (56%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- McCann – Appleton – Tanev8:03
xG 0.05–0.05 (46%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
- Schwartz – Donskoi – Gourde2:57
xG 0.02–0.04 (33%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Soucy – Dunn10:33
xG 0.33–0.30 (52%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
- Oleksiak – Dunn2:17
xG 0.18–0.19 (48%)attempts 1–4goals 0–1
- Giordano – Oleksiak14:00
xG 0.35–0.87 (28%)attempts 15–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).