Fri, Nov 26, 2021·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Carolina Hurricanes 6, Philadelphia Flyers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 117 | 49 | 110 | 636 |
| PHI | 26 | 112 | 05 | 323 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:50PHIIvan ProvorovAssists: Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 13:40CARSebastian AhoAssists: Teuvo Teravainen · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P1 17:02PHIJoel FarabeeSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 0:23CARSebastian AhoAssists: Martin Necas, Brett Pesce · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
- P2 1:16PHIRasmus RistolainenAssists: Morgan Frost, Cam Atkinson · Slap, 0.03 xG2–3
- P2 1:45CARJesper FastAssists: Nino Niederreiter, Ian Cole · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–3
- P2 5:48CARJesperi KotkaniemiGWGAssists: Seth Jarvis, Tony DeAngelo · Tip-in, 0.09 xG4–3
- P2 16:22CARSteven LorentzAssists: Tony DeAngelo, Jesperi Kotkaniemi · Snap, 0.16 xG5–3
- P3 4:50CARAndrei SvechnikovAssists: Jordan Staal, Brady Skjei · Snap, 0.05 xG6–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 0:50CARSeth Jarvis: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P1 7:04PHIOskar Lindblom: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:38PHIJustin Braun: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 3:00CARMartin Necas: Interference2 min
- P2 9:06PHIZack MacEwen: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:06CARBrendan Smith: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:06PHIZack MacEwen: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:45CARBrett Pesce: Holding2 min
- P3 14:04PHIIvan Provorov: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Laughton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestNiederreiter – Fast – Trocheck7:42
xG 0.64–0.31 (68%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Teravainen – Aho – Necas10:19
xG 0.69–0.38 (64%)attempts 16–7goals 2–0
- Martinook – Lorentz – Kotkaniemi11:19
xG 0.29–0.10 (75%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Staal – Svechnikov – Jarvis7:25
xG 0.09–0.39 (18%)attempts 5–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSlavin – DeAngelo12:33
xG 0.57–0.23 (71%)attempts 17–11goals 1–1
- Cole – Smith11:57
xG 0.66–0.66 (50%)attempts 12–12goals 2–0
- Skjei – Pesce14:11
xG 0.29–0.65 (31%)attempts 14–14goals 2–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Couturier – Konecny11:35
xG 0.53–0.17 (76%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Atkinson – Frost – Farabee8:59
xG 0.51–0.44 (54%)attempts 12–11goals 1–2
- Thompson – Bunnaman – MacEwen4:42
xG 0.42–0.51 (45%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- van Riemsdyk – Laughton – Lindblom10:44
xG 0.11–0.40 (22%)attempts 6–13goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestBraun – Provorov11:42
xG 0.68–0.39 (63%)attempts 13–14goals 1–2
- Braun – Seeler2:07
xG 0.17–0.01 (93%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Yandle – Seeler11:03
xG 0.08–0.28 (23%)attempts 5–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).