Fri, Nov 26, 2021·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
New Jersey Devils 2, Nashville Predators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 02 | 07 | 216 | 225 |
| NSH | 19 | 113 | 29 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:31NSHRoman JosiAssists: Ryan Johansen, Alexandre Carrier · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 3:30NSHPhilip TomasinoAssists: Nick Cousins, Roman Josi · Deflected, 0.14 xG0–2
- P3 6:45NSHMikael GranlundGWGAssists: Matt Duchene, Filip Forsberg · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–3
- P3 11:58NJDAndreas JohnssonAssists: Dawson Mercer, Jesper Bratt · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–3
- P3 18:50NSHAlexandre CarrierENAssists: Ryan Johansen · Wrist, 0.43 xG1–4
- P3 19:32NJDTomas TatarAssists: Andreas Johnsson · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 6:27NJDAndreas Johnsson: Boarding2 min
- P1 6:38NSHMatt Duchene: Hooking2 min
- P1 8:27NJDP.K. Subban: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:03NSHFilip Forsberg: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:01NJDDougie Hamilton: Kneeing2 min
- P3 0:00NSHDante Fabbro: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Granlund won the faceoff against Hischier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestDe Leo – Bratt – Mercer2:46
xG 0.24–0.12 (67%)attempts 4–1goals 0–1
- De Leo – Bastian – McLeod5:54
xG 0.05–0.02 (69%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Vesey – Zacha – Hischier5:47
xG 0.14–0.13 (53%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Tatar – Zacha – Hischier4:47
xG 0.04–0.04 (50%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSubban – Siegenthaler14:24
xG 0.32–0.16 (66%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Siegenthaler – White2:07
xG 0.07–0.09 (44%)attempts 1–3goals 1–0
- Severson – White9:13
xG 0.36–0.44 (45%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJohansen – Kunin – Tolvanen10:17
xG 0.59–0.31 (65%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
- Cousins – Novak – Tomasino10:05
xG 0.45–0.27 (62%)attempts 10–5goals 1–2
- Duchene – Granlund – Forsberg11:19
xG 0.39–0.27 (59%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Sissons – Trenin – Jeannot12:03
xG 0.25–0.44 (36%)attempts 5–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Fabbro18:35
xG 0.72–0.37 (66%)attempts 16–18goals 1–0
- Ekholm – Carrier16:48
xG 0.77–0.43 (64%)attempts 18–12goals 1–0
- Borowiecki – Benning12:40
xG 0.25–0.49 (34%)attempts 6–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).