Fri, Nov 26, 2021·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Colorado Avalanche 1, Dallas Stars 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 04 | 013 | 120 | 137 |
| DAL | 212 | 19 | 01 | 322 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:12DALJoe PavelskiAssists: Jason Robertson, John Klingberg · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 1:31DALJoe PavelskiGWGAssists: Roope Hintz · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–2
- P2 14:26DALDenis GurianovPPAssists: Miro Heiskanen, Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–3
- P3 16:39COLCale MakarAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Devon Toews · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 11:48DALTyler Seguin: Holding2 min
- P1 14:52DALJamie Benn: Holding2 min
- P2 4:25COLKiefer Sherwood: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 8:46COLMikko Rantanen: Cross checking2 min
- P2 12:38COLNicolas Aube-Kubel: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P3 11:03DALRoope Hintz: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Rantanen won the faceoff against Benn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Landeskog – Rantanen3:05
xG 0.75–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Landeskog – Rantanen – O'Connor8:48
xG 0.06–0.15 (30%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Helm – Megna – Sherwood4:15
xG 0.09–0.19 (33%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Aube-Kubel – Jost – Newhook4:43
xG 0.04–0.34 (11%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Girard3:57
xG 0.90–0.14 (86%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Johnson – Murray3:11
xG 0.32–0.02 (94%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Girard – Makar4:19
xG 0.13–0.10 (58%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Hintz – Robertson9:09
xG 0.72–0.14 (84%)attempts 10–8goals 2–0
- Benn – Raffl – Gurianov7:19
xG 0.48–0.29 (62%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Radulov – Faksa – Peterson7:49
xG 0.27–0.57 (32%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Seguin – Glendening – Kiviranta5:19
xG 0.23–0.80 (22%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHakanpää – Hanley7:06
xG 0.44–0.15 (75%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Lindell – Heiskanen13:42
xG 0.57–0.38 (60%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Hakanpää – Lindell3:18
xG 0.04–0.42 (8%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).