Fri, Nov 26, 2021·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Winnipeg Jets 1, Minnesota Wild 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 014 | 06 | 111 | 131 |
| MIN | 29 | 321 | 28 | 738 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:52MINAlex GoligoskiAssists: Brandon Duhaime, Nico Sturm · Wrist, 0.00 xG0–1
- P1 7:47MINMats ZuccarelloGWGAssists: Dmitry Kulikov, Kirill Kaprizov · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–2
- P2 2:04MINRyan HartmanAssists: Kirill Kaprizov · Backhand, 0.09 xG0–3
- P2 2:49MINMats ZuccarelloAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Jonas Brodin · Slap, 0.19 xG0–4
- P2 9:35MINJon MerrillAssists: Kevin Fiala, Frederick Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–5
- P3 11:24MINMathew DumbaAssists: Marcus Foligno, Rem Pitlick · Slap, 0.09 xG0–6
- P3 15:08WPGPierre-Luc DuboisPPAssists: Nate Schmidt, Eric Comrie · Snap, 0.04 xG1–6
- P3 15:22MINKirill KaprizovAssists: Kevin Fiala · Slap, 0.10 xG1–7
Penalties (9)
- P1 14:38MINJoel Eriksson Ek: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:21MINJordie Benn: Interference2 min
- P2 12:46WPGNathan Beaulieu: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:04WPGEvgeny Svechnikov: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:04WPGEvgeny Svechnikov: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:38WPGLogan Stanley: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:38MINJoel Eriksson Ek: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:51WPGPierre-Luc Dubois: Holding2 min
- P3 13:11MINRyan Hartman: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eriksson Ek won the faceoff against Dubois
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Connor – Dubois7:00
xG 0.49–0.16 (75%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Stastny – Lowry – Ehlers3:26
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Ehlers – Connor – Dubois2:51
xG 0.12–0.18 (39%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
- Connor – Svechnikov – Dubois3:43
xG 0.02–0.09 (20%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchmidt – Morrissey9:34
xG 0.46–0.22 (67%)attempts 10–9goals 0–3
- DeMelo – Stanley8:24
xG 0.35–0.81 (30%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Dillon – Pionk13:17
xG 0.10–0.62 (14%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestZuccarello – Hartman – Kaprizov6:58
xG 0.64–0.21 (76%)attempts 11–9goals 3–0
- Foligno – Greenway – Eriksson Ek12:15
xG 0.71–0.45 (61%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Fiala – Pitlick8:59
xG 0.28–0.23 (54%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Bjugstad – Duhaime – Sturm8:34
xG 0.16–0.25 (39%)attempts 5–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Dumba17:23
xG 1.29–0.53 (71%)attempts 16–13goals 1–0
- Goligoski – Merrill14:42
xG 0.24–0.32 (43%)attempts 9–10goals 2–0
- Benn – Kulikov9:45
xG 0.43–0.57 (43%)attempts 11–18goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).